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Ligue 1

Referee: T Léonard

Marseille

S S S T S

0–1

Full-time

Lens

S T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Lens

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

3,3

3,0

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

1,3

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 51%

63%

38%

Points per game

2,0

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

63%

33%

Both score Ø 53%

63%

42%

Average goals

3,4

2,4

Scored

2,2

1,2

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,01 xG 0,87

76% Possession 24%

15 Shots 3

6 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

7 Corners 0

0 Offside 2

15 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Marseille 2. · Lens 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	25	20	5	0	+46	+42.8	65
2	Marseille	24	15	4	5	+23	+13.8	49
3	Nice	24	13	7	4	+21	+15.5	46
4	Monaco	25	13	5	7	+17	+29.4	44
5	Lille	25	12	8	5	+13	+7.3	44
6	Lyon	24	11	6	7	+13	+5.4	39
7	Strasbourg	24	10	7	7	+6	-6.2	37
8	Toulouse	25	9	7	9	+5	+9.8	34
9	Lens	24	9	6	9	+0	+4.8	33
10	Brest	24	10	3	11	-4	-9.0	33
11	Rennes	25	9	2	14	-1	+0.5	29
12	Auxerre	24	7	7	10	-4	-10.1	28
13	Angers	24	7	6	11	-12	-9.5	27
14	Nantes	24	5	9	10	-14	-10.4	24
15	Reims	24	5	7	12	-12	-16.6	22
16	Le Havre	24	6	2	16	-27	-17.2	20
17	St Etienne	24	5	4	15	-32	-30.5	19
18	Montpellier	25	4	3	18	-38	-19.9	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	10	2	0	+25	+22.3	32
2	Monaco	13	9	2	2	+16	+20.5	29
3	Nice	11	8	3	0	+18	+10.7	27
4	Lille	13	8	3	2	+9	+0.4	27
5	Lyon	12	7	2	3	+9	+5.6	23
6	Auxerre	13	6	5	2	+9	+2.0	23
7	Marseille	12	6	4	2	+9	+12.6	22
8	Strasbourg	11	6	4	1	+8	+0.8	22
9	Rennes	14	7	1	6	+6	+3.1	22
10	Brest	11	6	2	3	+6	-0.7	20
11	St Etienne	12	5	2	5	-2	-4.4	17
12	Toulouse	13	4	4	5	+0	+2.2	16
13	Lens	12	4	2	6	-3	+5.1	14
14	Nantes	11	3	4	4	-1	+1.4	13
15	Montpellier	13	3	3	7	-17	-5.1	12
16	Angers	12	3	2	7	-11	-10.3	11
17	Reims	12	2	4	6	-6	-5.0	10
18	Le Havre	12	2	0	10	-21	-12.1	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	10	3	0	+21	+20.5	33
2	Marseille	12	9	0	3	+14	+1.2	27
3	Nice	13	5	4	4	+3	+4.9	19
4	Lens	12	5	4	3	+3	-0.3	19
5	Toulouse	12	5	3	4	+5	+7.6	18
6	Lille	12	4	5	3	+4	+6.9	17
7	Lyon	12	4	4	4	+4	-0.3	16
8	Angers	12	4	4	4	-1	+0.8	16
9	Monaco	12	4	3	5	+1	+8.9	15
10	Strasbourg	13	4	3	6	-2	-7.0	15
11	Le Havre	12	4	2	6	-6	-5.1	14
12	Brest	13	4	1	8	-10	-8.3	13
13	Reims	12	3	3	6	-6	-11.7	12
14	Nantes	13	2	5	6	-13	-11.8	11
15	Rennes	11	2	1	8	-7	-2.6	7
16	Auxerre	11	1	2	8	-13	-12.0	5
17	Montpellier	12	1	0	11	-21	-14.8	3
18	St Etienne	12	0	2	10	-30	-26.0	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.