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Ligue 1
Referee: S Frappart
Le Havre
T U T U S
1–3
Full-time
Nice
S U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Le Havre Nice
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
0,8
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
50%
17%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
2,8
2,0
Scored
1,0
1,2
Conceded
1,8
0,8
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Ligue 1 · 21/21 matches
Win Ø 36%
24%
48%
Points per game
0,8
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 55%
52%
57%
Both score Ø 57%
43%
71%
Average goals
2,7
3,2
Scored
0,8
2,0
Conceded
1,9
1,2
Goal diff per game
-1,1
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

0,70 xG 1,42
49% Possession 51%
14 Shots 9
4 Shots on target 3
4 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
6 Corners 2
2 Offside 3
14 Free kicks against 16
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Le Havre 17. · Nice 4.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Paris SG 22 17 5 0 +39 +37.5 56
2 Marseille 22 14 4 4 +24 +13.8 46
3 Monaco 22 12 4 6 +15 +23.1 40
4 Nice 21 10 7 4 +15 +12.6 37
5 Lyon 22 10 6 6 +13 +6.7 36
6 Lille 21 9 8 4 +12 +7.1 35
7 Lens 21 9 6 6 +5 +9.0 33
8 Brest 22 10 2 10 -3 -9.6 32
9 Strasbourg 21 8 6 7 +3 -6.9 30
10 Toulouse 22 7 6 9 -2 +6.8 27
11 Auxerre 22 6 7 9 -6 -12.7 25
12 Rennes 21 7 2 12 -1 +2.4 23
13 Angers 21 6 5 10 -9 -7.5 23
14 Reims 21 5 7 9 -7 -11.2 22
15 Nantes 22 4 9 9 -14 -11.8 21
16 St Etienne 22 5 3 14 -30 -28.2 18
17 Le Havre 21 5 2 14 -23 -14.4 17
18 Montpellier 22 4 3 15 -31 -16.7 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Le Havre Nice
16′
G. Laborde 0–1
E. Guessand
18′
É. Youté 1–1
own goal
2–1 Y. Kechta
M. Diawara
28′
34′
🟨 Melvin Bard
Junior Mwanga 🟨
45′
Half-time 2–1
R. Ndiaye 🔁
↦ M. Diawara
46′
Yassine Kechta 🟨
53′
61′
🔁 S. Diop
↦ A. Abdi
62′
🔁 T. Ndombélé
↦ T. Louchet
64′
ℹ️ Evann Guessand
VAR: Goal cancelled
A. Ayew 🔁
↦ Koka
70′
I. Housni 🔁
↦ A. Joujou
81′
T. Pembélé 🔁
↦ Y. Kechta
81′
81′
🔁 J. Boga
↦ G. Laborde
89′
🔁 P. Rosario
↦ M. Cho
91′
🟨 Melvin Bard
91′
🟥 Melvin Bard
94′
S. Diop 2–2
J. Boga
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Le Havre

4-1-4-1
1 M. Gorgelin G
7 L. Nego D
6 É. Youté D
93 A. Sangante D
18 Y. Zouaoui D
23 J. Mwanga M
21 A. Joujou M
34 M. Diawara M
8 Y. Kechta M
45 I. Soumaré M
99 Koka F
Bench (9)
19 R. Ndiaye
28 A. Ayew
46 I. Housni
32 T. Pembélé
33 Hernani Mendes Vaz
17 O. El Hajjam
9 Y. Kitala
30 A. Desmas
25 A. Confais

Coach: D. Digard

Nice

3-4-2-1
1 M. Bułka G
64 M. Bombito D
4 Dante D
26 M. Bard D
92 J. Clauss M
20 T. Louchet M
28 B. Santamaría M
2 A. Abdi M
29 E. Guessand F
25 M. Cho F
24 G. Laborde F
Bench (9)
10 S. Diop
22 T. Ndombélé
7 J. Boga
8 P. Rosario
15 Y. Moukoko
31 M. Dupé
5 Mohamed Abdelmonem
19 B. Bouanani
33 A. Mendy

Coach: F. Haise

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
5,18
U
3,96
B ✓
1,65
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,84
U2,5
1,99
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

S Frappart · 124 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.