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Eredivisie

Referee: M Nagtegaal

Ajax

T S S S S

4–0

Full-time

Heracles

U U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Heracles

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

33%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,8

Conceded

0,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 21/22 matches

Win Ø 50%

76%

23%

Points per game

2,4

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

57%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

52%

64%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

2,1

1,3

Conceded

0,9

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,62 xG 0,48

56% Possession 44%

11 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 4

13 Free kicks against 14

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ajax 2. · Heracles 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	23	16	4	3	+45	+30.3	52
2	Ajax	21	16	3	2	+27	+19.5	51
3	Utrecht	23	12	7	4	+6	+0.2	43
4	Feyenoord	22	11	7	4	+20	+17.4	40
5	Twente	21	11	6	4	+17	+16.4	39
6	Go Ahead Eagles	22	10	5	7	+6	+9.3	35
7	AZ Alkmaar	20	10	4	6	+8	+9.9	34
8	Heerenveen	22	7	6	9	-7	-0.6	27
9	Groningen	23	7	6	10	-10	-8.9	27
10	NAC Breda	23	8	3	12	-15	-13.0	27
11	For Sittard	22	7	5	10	-11	-5.6	26
12	Nijmegen	22	7	4	11	+2	+4.0	25
13	Zwolle	23	6	7	10	-8	-17.8	25
14	Willem II	23	6	6	11	-8	-18.4	24
15	Heracles	22	5	9	8	-11	-12.3	24
16	Sparta Rotterdam	23	4	8	11	-14	-2.6	20
17	Waalwijk	23	4	5	14	-16	-13.0	17
18	Almere City	22	3	5	14	-31	-14.9	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	12	9	3	0	+30	+18.1	30
2	Ajax	10	9	1	0	+17	+13.8	28
3	Twente	10	7	3	0	+17	+13.9	24
4	Go Ahead Eagles	12	7	3	2	+10	+11.6	24
5	Feyenoord	10	6	2	2	+10	+12.0	20
6	Heerenveen	11	5	5	1	+7	+5.3	20
7	NAC Breda	12	6	2	4	+1	-0.7	20
8	Groningen	11	5	4	2	+6	+1.9	19
9	Zwolle	12	5	2	5	+1	-5.5	17
10	Utrecht	11	5	2	4	-4	+3.7	17
11	Nijmegen	12	4	4	4	+9	+8.2	16
12	Heracles	12	3	7	2	+2	+0.2	16
13	For Sittard	11	5	0	6	-5	+0.1	15
14	AZ Alkmaar	9	4	1	4	+1	+6.5	13
15	Willem II	12	3	3	6	-1	-6.9	12
16	Waalwijk	11	3	2	6	-2	-3.5	11
17	Sparta Rotterdam	11	1	5	5	-8	+0.7	8
18	Almere City	11	2	1	8	-19	-4.3	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Utrecht	12	7	5	0	+10	-3.5	26
2	Ajax	11	7	2	2	+10	+5.7	23
3	PSV Eindhoven	11	7	1	3	+15	+12.1	22
4	AZ Alkmaar	11	6	3	2	+7	+3.3	21
5	Feyenoord	12	5	5	2	+10	+5.4	20
6	Twente	11	4	3	4	+0	+2.5	15
7	Sparta Rotterdam	12	3	3	6	-6	-3.3	12
8	Willem II	11	3	3	5	-7	-11.5	12
9	Go Ahead Eagles	10	3	2	5	-4	-2.2	11
10	For Sittard	11	2	5	4	-6	-5.7	11
11	Nijmegen	10	3	0	7	-7	-4.2	9
12	Zwolle	11	1	5	5	-9	-12.3	8
13	Heracles	10	2	2	6	-13	-12.5	8
14	Groningen	12	2	2	8	-16	-10.8	8
15	Almere City	11	1	4	6	-12	-10.5	7
16	Heerenveen	11	2	1	8	-14	-5.8	7
17	NAC Breda	11	2	1	8	-16	-12.3	7
18	Waalwijk	12	1	3	8	-14	-9.5	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.