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Serie A

Referee: D Chiffi

Parma

T U T T T

0–1

Full-time

Roma

S U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Parma Roma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,3

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 28%

17%

38%

Points per game

0,8

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

67%

46%

Both score Ø 67%

79%

54%

Average goals

3,1

2,7

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,6

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,26 xG 1,12

28% Possession 72%

5 Shots 16

1 Shots on target 4

0 Blocked shots 7

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

1 Corners 10

1 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 5

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Parma 18. · Roma 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	25	17	5	3	+22	+14.7	56
2	Inter	24	16	6	2	+35	+25.9	54
3	Atalanta	25	15	6	4	+28	+19.1	51
4	Lazio	25	14	4	7	+13	+12.2	46
5	Juventus	24	10	13	1	+20	+12.2	43
6	Fiorentina	25	12	6	7	+14	+5.8	42
7	Milan	24	11	8	5	+12	+15.4	41
8	Bologna	24	10	11	3	+9	+7.9	41
9	Roma	24	9	7	8	+6	+4.9	34
10	Udinese	25	9	6	10	-5	-10.9	33
11	Torino	25	6	10	9	-4	-10.2	28
12	Genoa	24	6	9	9	-11	-6.3	27
13	Como	25	6	7	12	-10	+1.5	25
14	Cagliari	25	6	7	12	-13	-7.5	25
15	Lecce	25	6	7	12	-23	-15.4	25
16	Verona	25	7	2	16	-28	-14.4	23
17	Empoli	25	4	9	12	-16	-12.6	21
18	Parma	24	4	8	12	-14	-13.7	20
19	Venezia	24	3	7	14	-17	-15.1	16
20	Monza	25	2	8	15	-18	-13.5	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	12	9	1	2	+10	+12.5	28
2	Inter	12	8	3	1	+14	+11.2	27
3	Lazio	13	7	4	2	+8	+9.0	25
4	Atalanta	12	7	3	2	+13	+10.7	24
5	Milan	13	6	6	1	+11	+11.7	24
6	Fiorentina	13	7	3	3	+7	+7.0	24
7	Bologna	12	6	5	1	+9	+10.2	23
8	Roma	12	7	1	4	+12	+7.1	22
9	Juventus	12	5	7	0	+11	+9.7	22
10	Udinese	13	6	2	5	+1	-5.0	20
11	Como	12	4	3	5	-1	+2.7	15
12	Cagliari	13	4	3	6	-7	-0.6	15
13	Torino	12	3	5	4	-1	-4.0	14
14	Lecce	12	3	5	4	-12	-2.7	14
15	Venezia	12	3	3	6	-3	-1.6	12
16	Parma	12	3	3	6	-4	-3.0	12
17	Genoa	12	2	6	4	-4	-1.9	12
18	Verona	12	3	1	8	-19	-4.9	10
19	Empoli	12	1	5	6	-9	-4.2	8
20	Monza	13	1	4	8	-7	-4.7	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	13	8	4	1	+12	+2.2	28
2	Inter	12	8	3	1	+21	+14.6	27
3	Atalanta	13	8	3	2	+15	+8.4	27
4	Juventus	12	5	6	1	+9	+2.5	21
5	Lazio	12	7	0	5	+5	+3.2	21
6	Fiorentina	12	5	3	4	+7	-1.1	18
7	Bologna	12	4	6	2	+0	-2.3	18
8	Milan	11	5	2	4	+1	+3.8	17
9	Genoa	12	4	3	5	-7	-4.3	15
10	Torino	13	3	5	5	-3	-6.2	14
11	Udinese	12	3	4	5	-6	-5.9	13
12	Empoli	13	3	4	6	-7	-8.4	13
13	Verona	13	4	1	8	-9	-9.5	13
14	Roma	12	2	6	4	-6	-2.2	12
15	Lecce	13	3	2	8	-11	-12.7	11
16	Cagliari	12	2	4	6	-6	-7.0	10
17	Como	13	2	4	7	-9	-1.1	10
18	Parma	12	1	5	6	-10	-10.7	8
19	Monza	12	1	4	7	-11	-8.7	7
20	Venezia	12	0	4	8	-14	-13.5	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.