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Ligue 1

Referee: B Bastien

Nice

T U S U S

1–0

Full-time

Le Havre

U T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nice Le Havre

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 31/32 matches

Win Ø 34%

45%

22%

Points per game

1,6

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

35%

50%

Both score Ø 43%

39%

47%

Average goals

2,0

2,3

Scored

1,2

1,0

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,70 xG 0,40

58% Possession 42%

13 Shots 12

6 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 1

2 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nice 5. · Le Havre 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	31	20	10	1	+47	+27.5	70
2	Monaco	32	18	7	7	+20	+10.8	61
3	Brest	32	16	9	7	+16	+7.7	57
4	Lille	32	15	10	7	+17	+11.8	55
5	Nice	31	14	9	8	+11	+13.3	51
6	Lens	32	14	7	11	+8	+3.7	49
7	Lyon	32	14	5	13	-8	-3.5	47
8	Rennes	32	12	9	11	+8	+11.0	45
9	Marseille	31	11	11	9	+9	+18.4	44
10	Montpellier	32	10	11	11	-3	+0.9	41
11	Toulouse	32	10	10	12	-3	-6.2	40
12	Reims	31	11	7	13	-7	-0.1	40
13	Strasbourg	32	9	9	14	-12	-3.0	36
14	Nantes	32	9	6	17	-20	-14.3	33
15	Le Havre	32	7	11	14	-9	-12.3	32
16	Metz	32	8	5	19	-20	-20.3	29
17	Lorient	32	6	8	18	-26	-19.8	26
18	Clermont	32	5	10	17	-28	-25.6	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lille	16	11	3	2	+20	+16.2	36
2	Paris SG	16	9	6	1	+22	+19.8	33
3	Marseille	16	9	6	1	+16	+16.3	33
4	Monaco	16	9	3	4	+12	+11.2	30
5	Brest	16	8	6	2	+11	+12.1	30
6	Lens	16	9	3	4	+9	+7.8	30
7	Nice	15	8	4	3	+10	+9.9	28
8	Rennes	16	7	3	6	+8	+12.4	24
9	Lyon	16	6	4	6	-5	+1.6	22
10	Reims	15	6	3	6	-1	+4.4	21
11	Strasbourg	16	6	3	7	-2	+2.0	21
12	Le Havre	16	6	2	8	+0	+3.0	20
13	Montpellier	16	3	9	4	-1	+7.7	18
14	Toulouse	16	3	7	6	-1	+4.9	16
15	Clermont	16	3	5	8	-12	-6.2	14
16	Lorient	16	3	4	9	-9	-6.3	13
17	Metz	16	3	3	10	-8	-3.8	12
18	Nantes	16	3	3	10	-12	-7.7	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	15	11	4	0	+25	+7.8	37
2	Monaco	16	9	4	3	+8	-0.4	31
3	Brest	16	8	3	5	+5	-4.4	27
4	Lyon	16	8	1	7	-3	-5.1	25
5	Toulouse	16	7	3	6	-2	-11.1	24
6	Nice	16	6	5	5	+1	+3.5	23
7	Montpellier	16	7	2	7	-2	-6.7	23
8	Rennes	16	5	6	5	+0	-1.4	21
9	Nantes	16	6	3	7	-8	-6.6	21
10	Lens	16	5	4	7	-1	-4.1	19
11	Lille	16	4	7	5	-3	-4.4	19
12	Reims	16	5	4	7	-6	-4.5	19
13	Metz	16	5	2	9	-12	-16.5	17
14	Strasbourg	16	3	6	7	-10	-5.0	15
15	Lorient	16	3	4	9	-17	-13.5	13
16	Le Havre	16	1	9	6	-9	-15.3	12
17	Marseille	15	2	5	8	-7	+2.1	11
18	Clermont	16	2	5	9	-16	-19.4	11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.