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Ligue 1

Referee: C Turpin

Toulouse

U S T S U

1–2

Full-time

Montpellier

U T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Montpellier

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

1,7

3,0

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

0,7

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 28%

39%

17%

Points per game

1,4

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

39%

72%

Both score Ø 48%

39%

56%

Average goals

2,1

3,4

Scored

1,1

1,0

Conceded

1,1

2,4

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,98 xG 0,58

67% Possession 33%

15 Shots 6

6 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 2

2 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 10. · Montpellier 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	19	14	5	0	+32	+31.1	47
2	Marseille	18	11	4	3	+19	+5.2	37
3	Monaco	19	10	4	5	+10	+20.8	34
4	Lille	19	8	8	3	+10	+6.4	32
5	Nice	18	8	6	4	+11	+10.9	30
6	Lyon	18	8	5	5	+7	+5.8	29
7	Brest	19	9	1	9	-2	-9.3	28
8	Lens	18	7	6	5	+4	+7.1	27
9	Strasbourg	19	7	6	6	+2	-8.1	27
10	Toulouse	18	7	4	7	+0	+8.2	25
11	Auxerre	19	6	5	8	-4	-10.5	23
12	Reims	19	5	7	7	-2	-7.4	22
13	Angers	18	6	4	8	-6	-3.2	22
14	St Etienne	19	5	3	11	-21	-18.1	18
15	Rennes	19	5	2	12	-4	-0.6	17
16	Nantes	18	3	8	7	-7	-8.1	17
17	Le Havre	19	4	1	14	-24	-15.5	13
18	Montpellier	18	3	3	12	-25	-14.5	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	10	8	2	0	+19	+17.6	26
2	Monaco	10	6	2	2	+5	+12.8	20
3	Brest	9	6	1	2	+9	+1.0	19
4	Auxerre	10	5	4	1	+7	-0.6	19
5	Nice	8	5	3	0	+12	+8.0	18
6	Strasbourg	9	5	3	1	+6	-0.1	18
7	Lille	9	5	3	1	+5	-0.3	18
8	Lyon	9	5	2	2	+5	+4.0	17
9	Rennes	10	5	1	4	+9	+6.0	16
10	St Etienne	9	5	1	3	+2	+1.1	16
11	Toulouse	9	4	2	3	+2	+5.4	14
12	Marseille	9	3	4	2	+2	+4.4	13
13	Montpellier	10	3	3	4	-8	-3.4	12
14	Lens	9	3	2	4	-1	+4.9	11
15	Reims	10	2	4	4	-4	-4.2	10
16	Angers	9	3	1	5	-5	-4.6	10
17	Nantes	8	2	3	3	-1	-0.0	9
18	Le Havre	10	2	0	8	-16	-9.7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	9	8	0	1	+17	+0.8	24
2	Paris SG	9	6	3	0	+13	+13.5	21
3	Lens	9	4	4	1	+5	+2.2	16
4	Monaco	9	4	2	3	+5	+8.0	14
5	Lille	10	3	5	2	+5	+6.7	14
6	Reims	9	3	3	3	+2	-3.2	12
7	Lyon	9	3	3	3	+2	+1.8	12
8	Nice	10	3	3	4	-1	+2.9	12
9	Angers	9	3	3	3	-1	+1.4	12
10	Toulouse	9	3	2	4	-2	+2.8	11
11	Strasbourg	10	2	3	5	-4	-8.0	9
12	Brest	10	3	0	7	-11	-10.3	9
13	Nantes	10	1	5	4	-6	-8.1	8
14	Le Havre	9	2	1	6	-8	-5.8	7
15	Auxerre	9	1	1	7	-11	-9.9	4
16	St Etienne	10	0	2	8	-23	-19.3	2
17	Rennes	9	0	1	8	-13	-6.7	1
18	Montpellier	8	0	0	8	-17	-11.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.