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Premier League

Referee: P Bankes

Aston Villa

S S S U T

1–1

Full-time

West Ham

T T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa West Ham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,5

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,2

2,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 39%

45%

32%

Points per game

1,6

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

73%

59%

Both score Ø 66%

68%

64%

Average goals

3,0

3,2

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,85 xG 1,31

46% Possession 54%

14 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 3

2 Offside 4

13 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 8. · West Ham 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	22	16	5	1	+33	+33.0	53
2	Arsenal	23	13	8	2	+23	+18.1	47
3	Nott'm Forest	23	13	5	5	+6	+2.8	44
4	Man City	23	12	5	6	+17	+10.5	41
5	Newcastle	23	12	5	6	+14	+12.5	41
6	Chelsea	23	11	7	5	+15	+14.2	40
7	Bournemouth	23	11	7	5	+15	+15.7	40
8	Aston Villa	22	10	6	6	-1	+6.5	36
9	Brighton	23	8	10	5	+4	-1.3	34
10	Fulham	22	8	9	5	+4	+5.1	33
11	Brentford	23	9	4	10	+2	-2.4	31
12	Crystal Palace	23	6	9	8	-4	-0.9	27
13	Man United	22	7	5	10	-5	-1.1	26
14	West Ham	22	7	5	10	-16	-9.1	26
15	Tottenham	23	7	3	13	+9	+0.3	24
16	Everton	22	5	8	9	-9	-7.5	23
17	Leicester	23	4	5	14	-24	-22.2	17
18	Wolves	23	4	4	15	-20	-15.0	16
19	Ipswich	23	3	7	13	-26	-26.9	16
20	Southampton	23	1	3	19	-37	-32.4	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	11	8	2	1	+15	+14.5	26
2	Arsenal	11	7	4	0	+13	+14.2	25
3	Man City	11	7	2	2	+9	+10.2	23
4	Brentford	12	7	2	3	+6	+2.9	23
5	Aston Villa	11	6	4	1	+6	+11.9	22
6	Bournemouth	11	6	3	2	+10	+10.3	21
7	Nott'm Forest	11	6	3	2	+5	+3.8	21
8	Newcastle	11	6	2	3	+7	+6.1	20
9	Chelsea	11	5	4	2	+6	+10.5	19
10	Fulham	11	4	5	2	+1	+1.0	17
11	Man United	12	5	1	6	-3	+1.7	16
12	Brighton	11	3	6	2	+0	+2.1	15
13	Tottenham	12	4	2	6	+4	+0.2	14
14	West Ham	12	4	2	6	-10	-6.6	14
15	Everton	11	3	4	4	-1	-2.8	13
16	Crystal Palace	12	2	5	5	-8	+0.4	11
17	Leicester	12	2	3	7	-10	-9.7	9
18	Wolves	11	2	1	8	-10	-6.1	7
19	Ipswich	12	1	4	7	-16	-10.9	7
20	Southampton	11	1	1	9	-22	-19.0	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	11	8	3	0	+18	+18.5	27
2	Nott'm Forest	12	7	2	3	+1	-0.9	23
3	Arsenal	12	6	4	2	+10	+3.9	22
4	Chelsea	12	6	3	3	+9	+3.7	21
5	Newcastle	12	6	3	3	+7	+6.5	21
6	Bournemouth	12	5	4	3	+5	+5.3	19
7	Brighton	12	5	4	3	+4	-3.4	19
8	Man City	12	5	3	4	+8	+0.3	18
9	Crystal Palace	11	4	4	3	+4	-1.2	16
10	Fulham	11	4	4	3	+3	+4.1	16
11	Aston Villa	11	4	2	5	-7	-5.5	14
12	West Ham	10	3	3	4	-6	-2.5	12
13	Tottenham	11	3	1	7	+5	+0.1	10
14	Man United	10	2	4	4	-2	-2.8	10
15	Everton	11	2	4	5	-8	-4.7	10
16	Wolves	12	2	3	7	-10	-8.9	9
17	Ipswich	11	2	3	6	-10	-16.0	9
18	Brentford	11	2	2	7	-4	-5.2	8
19	Leicester	11	2	2	7	-14	-12.5	8
20	Southampton	12	0	2	10	-15	-13.4	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.