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Ligue 1

Referee: B Bastien

Toulouse

S T S U S

1–2

Full-time

Strasbourg

T U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Strasbourg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

33%

83%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,8

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 38%

44%

31%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

38%

69%

Both score Ø 57%

38%

75%

Average goals

2,2

3,5

Scored

1,1

1,8

Conceded

1,1

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

1,24 xG 2,35

53% Possession 47%

19 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 2

8 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

3 Corners 2

4 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 8. · Strasbourg 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	12	4	0	+30	+26.5	40
2	Marseille	17	11	3	3	+19	+3.1	36
3	Monaco	17	9	4	4	+10	+19.6	31
4	Nice	17	8	6	3	+12	+9.1	30
5	Lille	17	7	8	2	+10	+7.5	29
6	Lyon	17	8	4	5	+7	+6.3	28
7	Lens	17	7	6	4	+5	+7.6	27
8	Toulouse	16	7	3	6	+1	+8.8	24
9	Auxerre	17	6	4	7	-2	-9.9	22
10	Brest	17	7	1	9	-4	-10.0	22
11	Strasbourg	16	5	5	6	+0	-6.3	20
12	Reims	17	5	5	7	-2	-6.9	20
13	Rennes	17	5	2	10	-2	+0.7	17
14	Nantes	17	3	7	7	-7	-8.6	16
15	Angers	16	4	4	8	-10	-6.0	16
16	St Etienne	16	5	1	10	-20	-14.1	16
17	Le Havre	17	4	0	13	-23	-14.6	12
18	Montpellier	16	2	3	11	-24	-12.6	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	8	7	1	0	+18	+13.5	22
2	Brest	9	6	1	2	+9	+1.0	19
3	Nice	8	5	3	0	+12	+8.0	18
4	Auxerre	9	5	3	1	+7	-0.3	18
5	Monaco	9	5	2	2	+4	+11.1	17
6	Rennes	9	5	1	3	+10	+5.6	16
7	Lyon	8	5	1	2	+5	+4.5	16
8	Strasbourg	8	4	3	1	+5	+0.6	15
9	Lille	8	4	3	1	+4	+1.5	15
10	St Etienne	8	5	0	3	+2	+1.7	15
11	Toulouse	8	4	2	2	+3	+6.5	14
12	Marseille	8	3	3	2	+2	+2.3	12
13	Lens	8	3	2	3	+0	+5.4	11
14	Nantes	8	2	3	3	-1	-0.0	9
15	Reims	9	2	3	4	-4	-4.0	9
16	Montpellier	8	2	3	3	-7	-1.5	9
17	Angers	8	2	1	5	-7	-4.8	7
18	Le Havre	9	2	0	7	-15	-8.6	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	9	8	0	1	+17	+0.8	24
2	Paris SG	8	5	3	0	+12	+13.0	18
3	Lens	9	4	4	1	+5	+2.2	16
4	Monaco	8	4	2	2	+6	+8.5	14
5	Lille	9	3	5	1	+6	+6.0	14
6	Lyon	9	3	3	3	+2	+1.8	12
7	Nice	9	3	3	3	+0	+1.1	12
8	Reims	8	3	2	3	+2	-2.9	11
9	Toulouse	8	3	1	4	-2	+2.3	10
10	Angers	8	2	3	3	-3	-1.2	9
11	Nantes	9	1	4	4	-6	-8.6	7
12	Le Havre	8	2	0	6	-8	-6.0	6
13	Strasbourg	8	1	2	5	-5	-7.0	5
14	Auxerre	8	1	1	6	-9	-9.6	4
15	Brest	8	1	0	7	-13	-10.9	3
16	Rennes	8	0	1	7	-12	-4.9	1
17	St Etienne	8	0	1	7	-22	-15.8	1
18	Montpellier	8	0	0	8	-17	-11.1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.