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Ligue 1

Referee: Benoit Millot

Montpellier

S U T S T

2–1

Full-time

Toulouse

T S U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Montpellier Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,2

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,5

This season — Ligue 1 · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 31%

35%

26%

Points per game

1,5

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

45%

Both score Ø 55%

52%

58%

Average goals

2,5

2,4

Scored

1,4

0,9

Conceded

1,1

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

46% Possession 54%

16 Shots 6

5 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Montpellier 8. · Toulouse 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	30	26	3	1	+71	81
2	Lille	31	18	7	6	+22	61
3	Lyon	32	16	8	8	+13	56
4	Marseille	32	15	6	11	+6	51
5	St Etienne	31	14	8	9	+8	50
6	Reims	32	11	15	6	+0	48
7	Nice	31	13	8	10	-6	47
8	Montpellier	31	11	12	8	+7	45
9	Strasbourg	32	10	14	8	+14	44
10	Nimes	32	12	7	13	+0	43
11	Rennes	31	11	9	11	+0	42
12	Angers	32	9	14	9	+1	41
13	Bordeaux	31	9	11	11	-1	38
14	Toulouse	31	8	11	12	-15	35
15	Nantes	31	9	7	15	-5	34
16	Monaco	32	7	11	14	-15	32
17	Amiens	32	8	8	16	-19	32
18	Dijon	32	6	7	19	-24	25
19	Guingamp	32	5	9	18	-34	24
20	Caen	32	4	11	17	-23	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	15	1	0	+47	46
2	Marseille	16	10	4	2	+17	34
3	Lyon	16	10	3	3	+14	33
4	St Etienne	15	10	2	3	+13	32
5	Lille	15	9	4	2	+16	31
6	Reims	16	7	7	2	+6	28
7	Bordeaux	16	7	6	3	+6	27
8	Nice	15	8	3	4	+1	27
9	Nimes	16	7	5	4	+9	26
10	Strasbourg	16	6	7	3	+10	25
11	Rennes	15	7	4	4	+7	25
12	Montpellier	15	6	6	3	+9	24
13	Nantes	15	6	4	5	+7	22
14	Angers	16	5	7	4	+3	22
15	Amiens	16	6	3	7	-3	21
16	Toulouse	16	4	7	5	-3	19
17	Monaco	17	3	6	8	-11	15
18	Guingamp	16	3	5	8	-9	14
19	Dijon	16	3	4	9	-14	13
20	Caen	16	2	5	9	-12	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	11	2	1	+24	35
2	Lille	16	9	3	4	+6	30
3	Lyon	16	6	5	5	-1	23
4	Montpellier	16	5	6	5	-2	21
5	Reims	16	4	8	4	-6	20
6	Nice	16	5	5	6	-7	20
7	Strasbourg	16	4	7	5	+4	19
8	Angers	16	4	7	5	-2	19
9	St Etienne	16	4	6	6	-5	18
10	Monaco	15	4	5	6	-4	17
11	Rennes	16	4	5	7	-7	17
12	Nimes	16	5	2	9	-9	17
13	Marseille	16	5	2	9	-11	17
14	Toulouse	15	4	4	7	-12	16
15	Dijon	16	3	3	10	-10	12
16	Caen	16	2	6	8	-11	12
17	Nantes	16	3	3	10	-12	12
18	Bordeaux	15	2	5	8	-7	11
19	Amiens	16	2	5	9	-16	11
20	Guingamp	16	2	4	10	-25	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.