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Ligue 1
Referee: B Bastien
Lorient
S S U U T
1–2
Full-time
Paris SG
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lorient Paris SG
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
50%
83%
Points per game
1,8
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
2,8
4,2
Scored
1,7
3,0
Conceded
1,2
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+1,8
This season — Ligue 1 · 13/13 matches
Win Ø 74%
62%
85%
Points per game
2,1
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 70%
77%
62%
Both score Ø 58%
77%
38%
Average goals
3,2
3,4
Scored
1,8
2,8
Conceded
1,4
0,6
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+2,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

41% Possession 59%
9 Shots 15
2 Shots on target 8
2 Blocked shots 4
5 Goalkeeper saves 1
5 Corners 8
10 Free kicks against 9
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lorient 4. · Paris SG 1.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 13 11 2 0 +28 35
2 Lens 14 10 3 1 +15 33
3 Rennes 13 8 3 2 +16 27
4 Lorient 13 8 3 2 +6 27
5 Marseille 13 7 3 3 +11 24
6 Monaco 13 7 3 3 +7 24
7 Lille 13 7 1 5 +3 22
8 Lyon 13 6 2 5 +6 20
9 Clermont 13 5 3 5 -3 18
10 Nice 13 4 4 5 -3 16
11 Toulouse 13 4 4 5 -4 16
12 Troyes 14 3 5 6 -4 14
13 Reims 13 2 7 4 -6 13
14 Auxerre 14 3 4 7 -12 13
15 Montpellier 13 4 0 9 -5 12
16 Nantes 13 2 6 5 -6 12
17 Ajaccio 14 3 2 9 -10 11
18 Strasbourg 14 1 7 6 -9 10
19 Brest 13 2 4 7 -12 10
20 Angers 14 2 2 10 -18 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Lorient Paris SG
9′
Neymar 0–1
H. Ekitike
V. Mannone 🔁
↦ Y. Mvogo
13′
Half-time 1–1
1–1 T. Moffi
E. Le Fée
53′
Bonke Innocent 🟨
65′
67′
🔁 Renato Sanches
↦ Vitinha
S. Diarra 🔁
↦ T. Le Bris
73′
A. Aouchiche 🔁
↦ J. Ponceau
73′
76′
🔁 Juan Bernat
↦ Nuno Mendes
76′
🔁 Carlos Soler
↦ H. Ekitike
78′
🟨 Achraf Hakimi
81′
Danilo Pereira 1–2
Neymar
I. Koné 🔁
↦ B. Innocent
85′
85′
🔁 Pablo Sarabia
↦ K. Mbappé
85′
🔁 N. Mukiele
↦ Danilo Pereira
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Lorient

4-1-4-1
38 Y. Mvogo G
24 G. Kalulu D
15 J. Laporte D
3 M. Talbi D
25 V. Le Goff D
8 B. Innocent M
11 D. Ouattara M
21 J. Ponceau M
10 E. Le Fée M
37 T. Le Bris M
13 T. Moffi F
Bench (9)
1 V. Mannone
7 S. Diarra
70 A. Aouchiche
9 I. Koné
29 S. Doucouré
12 D. Yongwa
22 Y. Cathline
4 C. Matsima
17 Q. Boisgard

Coach: R. Le Bris

Paris SG

3-4-1-2
99 G. Donnarumma G
4 Sergio Ramos D
5 Marquinhos D
15 Danilo Pereira D
2 A. Hakimi M
17 Vitinha M
6 M. Verratti M
25 Nuno Mendes M
10 Neymar F
44 H. Ekitike F
7 K. Mbappé F
Bench (9)
18 Renato Sanches
14 Juan Bernat
28 Carlos Soler
19 Pablo Sarabia
26 N. Mukiele
16 Sergio Rico
31 E. Bitshiabu
35 Ismaël Gharbi
33 W. Zaïre-Emery

Coach: C. Galtier

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
10,06
U
6,36
B ✓
1,26
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,39
U2,5
2,99
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

B Bastien · 180 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.