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Ligue 1
Referee: J Stinat
Lorient
T U T T S
3–2
Full-time
Paris SG
S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lorient Paris SG
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
0,7
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
67%
17%
Average goals
4,0
2,3
Scored
1,3
2,2
Conceded
2,7
0,2
Goal diff per game
-1,3
+2,0
This season — Ligue 1 · 20/21 matches
Win Ø 44%
20%
67%
Points per game
0,8
2,1
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
60%
57%
Both score Ø 37%
50%
24%
Average goals
3,2
2,8
Scored
1,2
2,3
Conceded
2,0
0,5
Goal diff per game
-0,9
+1,8
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

35% Possession 65%
16 Shots 14
5 Shots on target 3
5 Blocked shots 3
1 Goalkeeper saves 2
7 Corners 9
1 Offside 0
15 Free kicks against 9
4 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lorient 19. · Paris SG 2.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Lyon 22 13 7 2 +26 46
2 Paris SG 21 14 3 4 +37 45
3 Lille 21 13 6 2 +21 45
4 Monaco 21 12 3 6 +12 39
5 Rennes 21 10 6 5 +7 36
6 Lens 22 10 4 8 +1 34
7 Marseille 20 9 5 6 +5 32
8 Bordeaux 22 9 5 8 +2 32
9 Metz 21 8 7 6 +5 31
10 Angers 21 9 3 9 -7 30
11 Montpellier 22 8 4 10 -7 28
12 Brest 21 8 2 11 -6 26
13 Nice 21 7 5 9 -6 26
14 Reims 21 6 6 9 -2 24
15 Strasbourg 21 7 3 11 -3 24
16 St Etienne 22 5 7 10 -14 22
17 Nantes 21 3 9 9 -14 18
18 Dijon 21 2 9 10 -15 15
19 Lorient 20 4 3 13 -17 15
20 Nimes 20 4 3 13 -25 15

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Lorient Paris SG
Fabien Lemoine 🟨
-5′
2′
🟨 Danilo Pereira
Enzo Le Fée 🟨
12′
Thomas Monconduit 🟨
28′
1–0 L. Abergel
36′
45′
Neymar 1–1
Half-time 1–1
T. Chalobah 🔁
↦ T. Monconduit
46′
54′
ℹ️ Neymar
VAR: Goal cancelled
58′
Neymar 1–2
J. Delaplace 🔁
↦ H. Mendes
60′
Y. Wissa 🔁
↦ A. Laurienté
61′
T. Moffi 🔁
↦ A. Grbić
61′
75′
🟨 Leandro Paredes
P. Hamel 🔁
↦ E. Le Fée
78′
2–2 Y. Wissa
80′
81′
🔁 Pablo Sarabia
↦ Á. Di María
81′
🔁 I. Gueye
↦ L. Paredes
Laurent Abergel 🟨
90′
3–2 T. Moffi
L. Abergel
91′
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Lorient

5-4-1
1 M. Dreyer G
21 J. Morel D
14 J. Hergault D
15 J. Laporte D
17 H. Mendes D
2 A. Gravillon D
23 T. Monconduit M
6 L. Abergel M
10 E. Le Fée M
27 A. Grbić F
28 A. Laurienté M
Bench (9)
8 T. Chalobah
22 J. Delaplace
19 Y. Wissa
13 T. Moffi
29 P. Hamel
16 T. Bartouche
33 L. Mouyokolo
31 Y. Etienne
18 F. Lemoine

Coach: C. Pélissier

Paris SG

4-4-2
16 Sergio Rico G
20 L. Kurzawa D
24 A. Florenzi D
3 P. Kimpembe D
4 T. Kehrer D
11 Á. Di María M
15 Danilo Pereira M
8 L. Paredes M
10 Neymar M
9 M. Icardi F
7 K. Mbappé F
Bench (9)
19 Pablo Sarabia
27 I. Gueye
12 Rafinha
32 T. Pembele
30 A. Letellier
18 M. Kean
25 M. Bakker
31 C. Dagba
23 J. Draxler

Coach: M. Pochettino

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
15,00
U
8,16
B
1,16
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,35
U2,5
3,15
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

J Stinat · 142 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.