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Premier League

Referee: A Taylor

Aston Villa

U T T S T

3–1

Full-time

Man United

S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Man United

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 17%

17%

Average goals

2,5

1,5

Scored

0,8

1,3

Conceded

1,7

0,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+1,2

This season — Premier League · 13/12 matches

Win Ø 41%

23%

58%

Points per game

0,9

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

46%

50%

Both score Ø 44%

38%

50%

Average goals

2,4

2,8

Scored

0,8

1,4

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

42% Possession 58%

6 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 3

0 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 5

0 Offside 3

6 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 18. · Man United 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	13	11	1	1	+20	34
2	Man City	13	10	2	1	+27	32
3	Tottenham	13	8	2	3	+10	26
4	Newcastle	13	6	6	1	+14	24
5	Man United	12	7	2	3	+1	23
6	Brighton	13	6	3	4	+5	21
7	Chelsea	13	6	3	4	+1	21
8	Fulham	14	5	4	5	-1	19
9	Liverpool	12	4	4	4	+8	16
10	Brentford	14	3	7	4	-3	16
11	Crystal Palace	12	4	4	4	-3	16
12	Leeds	13	4	3	6	-3	15
13	Leicester	14	4	2	8	-2	14
14	West Ham	13	4	2	7	-2	14
15	Everton	14	3	5	6	-3	14
16	Bournemouth	14	3	4	7	-17	13
17	Southampton	13	3	3	7	-9	12
18	Aston Villa	13	3	3	7	-9	12
19	Wolves	14	2	4	8	-14	10
20	Nott'm Forest	14	2	4	8	-20	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	7	7	0	0	+22	21
2	Arsenal	6	6	0	0	+12	18
3	Newcastle	7	4	3	0	+11	15
4	Tottenham	6	5	0	1	+10	15
5	Liverpool	7	4	2	1	+11	14
6	Man United	6	4	1	1	+5	13
7	Crystal Palace	7	4	1	2	+2	13
8	Brentford	7	3	3	1	+6	12
9	Fulham	7	3	3	1	+2	12
10	Brighton	6	3	2	1	+6	11
11	Chelsea	6	3	2	1	+4	11
12	Leeds	7	3	2	2	+3	11
13	Aston Villa	6	3	1	2	+3	10
14	West Ham	6	3	1	2	+2	10
15	Leicester	7	2	2	3	+3	8
16	Everton	7	2	2	3	+0	8
17	Nott'm Forest	7	2	2	3	-2	8
18	Bournemouth	7	2	2	3	-2	8
19	Wolves	7	2	2	3	-6	8
20	Southampton	6	1	3	2	-1	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	7	5	1	1	+8	16
2	Man City	6	3	2	1	+5	11
3	Tottenham	7	3	2	2	+0	11
4	Brighton	7	3	1	3	-1	10
5	Chelsea	7	3	1	3	-3	10
6	Man United	6	3	1	2	-4	10
7	Newcastle	6	2	3	1	+3	9
8	Fulham	7	2	1	4	-3	7
9	Everton	7	1	3	3	-3	6
10	Leicester	7	2	0	5	-5	6
11	Southampton	7	2	0	5	-8	6
12	Bournemouth	7	1	2	4	-15	5
13	West Ham	7	1	1	5	-4	4
14	Leeds	6	1	1	4	-6	4
15	Brentford	7	0	4	3	-9	4
16	Crystal Palace	5	0	3	2	-5	3
17	Liverpool	5	0	2	3	-3	2
18	Wolves	7	0	2	5	-8	2
19	Aston Villa	7	0	2	5	-12	2
20	Nott'm Forest	7	0	2	5	-18	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.