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Ligue 1

Referee: J Hamel

Troyes

S U T U T

1–0

Full-time

Nice

S U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Troyes Nice

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,8

Scored

1,0

2,2

Conceded

1,5

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,5

This season — Ligue 1 · 9/8 matches

Win Ø 37%

11%

63%

Points per game

0,7

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

33%

63%

Both score Ø 46%

67%

25%

Average goals

2,4

2,6

Scored

0,9

2,1

Conceded

1,6

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

38% Possession 62%

8 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 3

2 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 20

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Troyes 17. · Nice 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	10	9	0	1	+14	27
2	Lens	9	5	3	1	+6	18
3	Nice	8	5	2	1	+13	17
4	Angers	10	4	4	2	+4	16
5	Lyon	10	4	4	2	+3	16
6	Marseille	8	4	2	2	+4	14
7	Monaco	10	4	2	4	+1	14
8	Lorient	9	3	5	1	+1	14
9	Lille	10	4	2	4	-2	14
10	Nantes	9	4	1	4	+3	13
11	Clermont	10	3	4	3	-7	13
12	Rennes	9	3	3	3	+3	12
13	Strasbourg	9	3	2	4	-1	11
14	Montpellier	9	2	4	3	+0	10
15	Reims	9	2	4	3	-1	10
16	Bordeaux	9	1	4	4	-9	7
17	Troyes	9	1	3	5	-6	6
18	Metz	9	1	3	5	-8	6
19	Brest	9	0	4	5	-8	4
20	St Etienne	9	0	4	5	-10	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	5	5	0	0	+10	15
2	Lyon	6	3	3	0	+6	12
3	Rennes	5	3	1	1	+7	10
4	Angers	5	3	1	1	+3	10
5	Lorient	4	3	1	0	+3	10
6	Nantes	5	3	0	2	+3	9
7	Lille	4	3	0	1	+0	9
8	Nice	4	2	2	0	+5	8
9	Montpellier	5	2	2	1	+3	8
10	Lens	5	2	2	1	+2	8
11	Clermont	5	2	2	1	+1	8
12	Marseille	4	2	1	1	+3	7
13	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	+2	7
14	Monaco	5	2	1	2	+1	7
15	Reims	4	1	2	1	+0	5
16	St Etienne	5	0	3	2	-4	3
17	Troyes	4	0	2	2	-2	2
18	Brest	4	0	2	2	-3	2
19	Metz	4	0	2	2	-3	2
20	Bordeaux	4	0	2	2	-3	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	5	4	0	1	+4	12
2	Lens	4	3	1	0	+4	10
3	Nice	4	3	0	1	+8	9
4	Marseille	4	2	1	1	+1	7
5	Monaco	5	2	1	2	+0	7
6	Angers	5	1	3	1	+1	6
7	Reims	5	1	2	2	-1	5
8	Lille	6	1	2	3	-2	5
9	Bordeaux	5	1	2	2	-6	5
10	Clermont	5	1	2	2	-8	5
11	Nantes	4	1	1	2	+0	4
12	Lorient	5	0	4	1	-2	4
13	Strasbourg	4	1	1	2	-3	4
14	Lyon	4	1	1	2	-3	4
15	Troyes	5	1	1	3	-4	4
16	Metz	5	1	1	3	-5	4
17	Montpellier	4	0	2	2	-3	2
18	Rennes	4	0	2	2	-4	2
19	Brest	5	0	2	3	-5	2
20	St Etienne	4	0	1	3	-6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.