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Ligue 1

Referee: Ruddy Buquet

Marseille

U S T U S

2–3

Full-time

Lyon

T U U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Lyon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,7

2,7

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 29/29 matches

Win Ø 56%

59%

52%

Points per game

2,0

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

55%

62%

Both score Ø 54%

48%

59%

Average goals

3,2

Scored

2,0

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

57% Possession 43%

10 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 4

3 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Marseille 3. · Lyon 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	31	27	2	2	+74	83
2	Monaco	30	20	6	4	+42	66
3	Marseille	29	17	8	4	+25	59
4	Lyon	29	15	9	5	+25	54
5	Rennes	30	13	6	11	+3	45
6	Nantes	30	12	8	10	+0	44
7	Montpellier	30	9	15	6	+3	42
8	Nice	30	12	6	12	-3	42
9	St Etienne	30	10	9	11	-11	39
10	Dijon	30	10	8	12	-14	38
11	Bordeaux	30	10	7	13	-6	37
12	Angers	31	8	11	12	-6	35
13	Caen	30	10	5	15	-14	35
14	Guingamp	30	9	8	13	-15	35
15	Strasbourg	30	8	8	14	-19	32
16	Amiens	30	8	7	15	-9	31
17	Toulouse	30	7	9	14	-12	30
18	Troyes	30	8	5	17	-15	29
19	Lille	30	7	7	16	-19	28
20	Metz	30	5	6	19	-29	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	16	0	0	+51	48
2	Monaco	16	13	2	1	+28	41
3	Marseille	14	9	4	1	+20	31
4	Dijon	15	9	3	3	+9	30
5	Lyon	14	7	5	2	+9	26
6	Nice	16	8	2	6	+2	26
7	St Etienne	15	6	6	3	+1	24
8	Caen	15	7	3	5	+1	24
9	Montpellier	16	5	8	3	+4	23
10	Nantes	14	7	2	5	+2	23
11	Strasbourg	15	6	4	5	+0	22
12	Bordeaux	15	6	4	5	+0	22
13	Guingamp	15	5	6	4	-1	21
14	Troyes	15	6	3	6	-1	21
15	Toulouse	15	5	5	5	+1	20
16	Rennes	14	6	2	6	-2	20
17	Amiens	15	5	4	6	+0	19
18	Angers	15	5	4	6	-3	19
19	Lille	15	4	5	6	-5	17
20	Metz	15	3	3	9	-11	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	15	11	2	2	+23	35
2	Lyon	15	8	4	3	+16	28
3	Marseille	15	8	4	3	+5	28
4	Monaco	14	7	4	3	+14	25
5	Rennes	16	7	4	5	+5	25
6	Nantes	16	5	6	5	-2	21
7	Montpellier	14	4	7	3	-1	19
8	Angers	16	3	7	6	-3	16
9	Nice	14	4	4	6	-5	16
10	Bordeaux	15	4	3	8	-6	15
11	St Etienne	15	4	3	8	-12	15
12	Guingamp	15	4	2	9	-14	14
13	Amiens	15	3	3	9	-9	12
14	Lille	15	3	2	10	-14	11
15	Caen	15	3	2	10	-15	11
16	Toulouse	15	2	4	9	-13	10
17	Strasbourg	15	2	4	9	-19	10
18	Metz	15	2	3	10	-18	9
19	Troyes	15	2	2	11	-14	8
20	Dijon	15	1	5	9	-23	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.