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Ligue 1

Referee: M Lesage

Marseille

T T U T U

3–2

Full-time

Nice

S T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Nice

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 23/24 matches

Win Ø 36%

39%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

43%

58%

Both score Ø 56%

61%

50%

Average goals

2,4

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

1,1

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

44% Possession 56%

8 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

5 Corners 3

1 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Marseille 9. · Nice 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lille	25	16	7	2	+27	55
2	Paris SG	25	17	3	5	+42	54
3	Lyon	25	15	7	3	+29	52
4	Monaco	25	15	4	6	+15	49
5	Rennes	24	10	8	6	+5	38
6	Lens	25	10	7	8	+1	37
7	Metz	25	9	8	8	+5	35
8	Montpellier	25	10	5	10	-4	35
9	Marseille	23	9	7	7	+3	34
10	Angers	25	10	4	11	-10	34
11	Bordeaux	25	9	6	10	-2	33
12	Brest	25	9	4	12	-7	31
13	Reims	25	7	8	10	-2	29
14	Nice	24	8	5	11	-5	29
15	St Etienne	25	7	8	10	-11	29
16	Strasbourg	25	8	4	13	-6	28
17	Lorient	24	6	5	13	-15	23
18	Nantes	25	4	10	11	-15	22
19	Nimes	24	5	3	16	-29	18
20	Dijon	25	2	9	14	-21	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	10	1	2	+28	31
2	Lille	13	8	4	1	+14	28
3	Monaco	13	8	4	1	+13	28
4	Lyon	13	8	3	2	+16	27
5	Brest	12	7	1	4	+3	22
6	Metz	13	5	4	4	+3	19
7	Bordeaux	13	5	4	4	+0	19
8	Rennes	13	5	3	5	-2	18
9	Lens	12	4	4	4	+0	16
10	Reims	12	4	4	4	-1	16
11	Montpellier	13	5	1	7	-3	16
12	Lorient	12	5	1	6	-3	16
13	Angers	12	5	1	6	-4	16
14	Marseille	11	4	3	4	+1	15
15	St Etienne	12	3	5	4	-6	14
16	Strasbourg	12	3	3	6	-3	12
17	Nantes	12	2	6	4	-7	12
18	Nice	12	3	2	7	-9	11
19	Dijon	13	0	6	7	-10	6
20	Nimes	11	1	1	9	-15	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lille	12	8	3	1	+13	27
2	Lyon	12	7	4	1	+13	25
3	Paris SG	12	7	2	3	+14	23
4	Monaco	12	7	0	5	+2	21
5	Lens	13	6	3	4	+1	21
6	Rennes	11	5	5	1	+7	20
7	Marseille	12	5	4	3	+2	19
8	Montpellier	12	5	4	3	-1	19
9	Nice	12	5	3	4	+4	18
10	Angers	13	5	3	5	-6	18
11	Metz	12	4	4	4	+2	16
12	Strasbourg	13	5	1	7	-3	16
13	St Etienne	13	4	3	6	-5	15
14	Bordeaux	12	4	2	6	-2	14
15	Nimes	13	4	2	7	-14	14
16	Reims	13	3	4	6	-1	13
17	Nantes	13	2	4	7	-8	10
18	Brest	13	2	3	8	-10	9
19	Dijon	12	2	3	7	-11	9
20	Lorient	12	1	4	7	-12	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.