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Champions League
Referee: S Marciniak
Sp Lisbon
S S S S S
1–5
Full-time
Arsenal
S T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Arsenal
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
100%
33%
Points per game
3,0
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
4,7
2,3
Scored
4,0
1,5
Conceded
0,7
0,8
Goal diff per game
+3,3
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 4/4 matches
Win Ø 63%
75%
50%
Points per game
2,5
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 13%
25%
0%
Both score Ø 25%
50%
0%
Average goals
2,8
1,0
Scored
2,3
0,8
Conceded
0,5
0,3
Goal diff per game
+1,8
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

1,05 xG 3,89
52% Possession 48%
19 Shots 13
8 Shots on target 9
3 Blocked shots 2
4 Goalkeeper saves 8
8 Corners 3
0 Offside 1
6 Free kicks against 8
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

16. Mar -23 Arsenal – Sp Lisbon 1–1 9. Mar -23 Sp Lisbon – Arsenal 2–2

Match report

Sp Lisbon Arsenal
Ousmane Diomande 🟨
4′
7′
⚽ Gabriel Martinelli 0–1
J. Timber
22′
⚽ K. Havertz 0–2
B. Saka
Half-time 0–3
46′
⚽ Gabriel Magalhães 0–3
D. Rice
1–3 Gonçalo Inácio ⚽
Trincão
47′
52′
🟨 David Raya
65′
⚽ B. Saka 1–4
Daniel Bragança 🔁
↦ M. Edwards
68′
Geny Catamo 🔁
↦ M. Araújo
68′
70′
🔁 Mikel Merino
↦ D. Rice
70′
🔁 L. Trossard
↦ Gabriel Martinelli
C. Harder 🔁
↦ H. Morita
78′
78′
🔁 E. Nwaneri
↦ M. Ødegaard
78′
🔁 O. Zinchenko
↦ R. Calafiori
82′
⚽ L. Trossard 1–5
84′
🔁 J. Kiwior
↦ Gabriel Magalhães
Matheus Reis 🔁
↦ Gonçalo Inácio
88′
João Simões 🔁
↦ Trincão
88′
Full-time 1–5

Line-ups

Sp Lisbon

3-4-2-1
1 F. Israel G
3 J. St. Juste D
26 O. Diomande D
25 Gonçalo Inácio D
57 Geovany Quenda M
42 M. Hjulmand M
5 H. Morita M
20 M. Araújo M
17 Trincão F
10 M. Edwards F
9 V. Gyökeres F
Bench (12)
23 Daniel Bragança
21 Geny Catamo
19 C. Harder
2 Matheus Reis
52 João Simões
47 Ricardo Esgaio
22 Iván Fresneda
41 Diego Callai
50 Alexandre Brito
13 V. Kovačević
78 Mauro Couto
66 Miguel Alves

Coach: João Pereira

Arsenal

4-3-3
22 David Raya G
12 J. Timber D
2 W. Saliba D
6 Gabriel Magalhães D
33 R. Calafiori D
8 M. Ødegaard M
5 T. Partey M
41 D. Rice M
7 B. Saka F
29 K. Havertz F
11 Gabriel Martinelli F
Bench (12)
23 Mikel Merino
19 L. Trossard
53 E. Nwaneri
17 O. Zinchenko
15 J. Kiwior
20 Jorginho
3 K. Tierney
49 M. Lewis-Skelly
30 R. Sterling
36 T. Setford
32 Neto
9 Gabriel Jesus

Coach: Mikel Arteta

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Marciniak · 120 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,09 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.