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Ligue 1

Referee: F Letexier

Toulouse

T S T T T

0–2

Full-time

Marseille

T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

4,0

3,0

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

2,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 13/13 matches

Win Ø 35%

23%

46%

Points per game

0,9

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

62%

46%

Both score Ø 54%

54%

Average goals

3,1

2,5

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

27% Possession 73%

10 Shots 14

3 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 2

5 Goalkeeper saves 3

1 Corners 7

2 Offside 0

16 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 19. · Marseille 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	11	0	3	+22	33
2	Angers	14	7	3	4	+2	24
3	Bordeaux	14	6	4	4	+4	22
4	Marseille	13	6	4	3	-1	22
5	St Etienne	14	6	4	4	-2	22
6	Montpellier	14	5	5	4	+4	20
7	Reims	14	5	5	4	+3	20
8	Nantes	14	6	2	6	-1	20
9	Lyon	14	5	4	5	+8	19
10	Lille	14	5	4	5	+3	19
11	Rennes	13	5	3	5	+2	18
12	Strasbourg	14	5	3	6	+1	18
13	Brest	14	4	6	4	-2	18
14	Monaco	14	5	3	6	-3	18
15	Nice	14	5	2	7	-4	17
16	Amiens	14	4	4	6	-7	16
17	Dijon	14	4	3	7	-6	15
18	Metz	14	3	5	6	-7	14
19	Toulouse	13	3	3	7	-10	12
20	Nimes	13	2	5	6	-6	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Angers	8	6	1	1	+11	19
2	Paris SG	7	6	0	1	+16	18
3	Lille	7	5	2	0	+10	17
4	Montpellier	7	5	1	1	+7	16
5	Strasbourg	7	4	2	1	+4	14
6	Marseille	7	4	2	1	+3	14
7	Brest	8	3	4	1	+4	13
8	Monaco	7	4	1	2	+3	13
9	Nantes	7	4	1	2	+2	13
10	Lyon	7	3	2	2	+7	11
11	Bordeaux	7	3	2	2	+3	11
12	Nice	7	3	2	2	+0	11
13	Dijon	7	3	2	2	+0	11
14	Rennes	6	3	1	2	+2	10
15	Reims	7	2	4	1	+2	10
16	St Etienne	7	2	4	1	+1	10
17	Amiens	7	3	1	3	-3	10
18	Metz	7	2	3	2	+1	9
19	Toulouse	6	3	0	3	-1	9
20	Nimes	5	2	1	2	+2	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	5	0	2	+6	15
2	St Etienne	7	4	0	3	-3	12
3	Bordeaux	7	3	2	2	+1	11
4	Reims	7	3	1	3	+1	10
5	Lyon	7	2	2	3	+1	8
6	Rennes	7	2	2	3	+0	8
7	Marseille	6	2	2	2	-4	8
8	Nantes	7	2	1	4	-3	7
9	Amiens	7	1	3	3	-4	6
10	Nice	7	2	0	5	-4	6
11	Brest	6	1	2	3	-6	5
12	Monaco	7	1	2	4	-6	5
13	Metz	7	1	2	4	-8	5
14	Angers	6	1	2	3	-9	5
15	Montpellier	7	0	4	3	-3	4
16	Strasbourg	7	1	1	5	-3	4
17	Dijon	7	1	1	5	-6	4
18	Nimes	8	0	4	4	-8	4
19	Toulouse	7	0	3	4	-9	3
20	Lille	7	0	2	5	-7	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.