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Ligue 1

Referee: Frank Schneider

Toulouse

T U T U U

2–5

Full-time

Marseille

S S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,7

2,8

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

This season — Ligue 1 · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 33%

22%

44%

Points per game

1,1

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

44%

58%

Both score Ø 56%

56%

Average goals

2,3

2,9

Scored

0,9

1,5

Conceded

1,4

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

42% Possession 58%

19 Shots 21

5 Shots on target 8

3 Blocked shots 8

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 9

0 Offside 1

4 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 15. · Marseille 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	36	28	4	4	+68	88
2	Lille	36	21	9	6	+32	72
3	Lyon	36	19	9	8	+18	66
4	St Etienne	36	18	8	10	+15	62
5	Montpellier	36	15	13	8	+12	58
6	Marseille	36	16	7	13	+4	55
7	Nice	36	14	11	11	-4	53
8	Nimes	36	15	7	14	+0	52
9	Reims	36	11	16	9	-6	49
10	Nantes	36	13	8	15	+1	47
11	Strasbourg	36	10	16	10	+11	46
12	Rennes	36	11	13	12	-1	46
13	Angers	36	10	15	11	+0	45
14	Bordeaux	36	9	11	16	-8	38
15	Toulouse	36	8	14	14	-18	38
16	Amiens	36	8	11	17	-20	35
17	Monaco	36	7	12	17	-19	33
18	Caen	36	7	12	17	-20	33
19	Dijon	36	8	7	21	-26	31
20	Guingamp	36	5	11	20	-39	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	18	16	2	0	+49	50
2	Lille	18	12	4	2	+26	40
3	St Etienne	18	12	2	4	+17	38
4	Lyon	18	11	4	3	+15	37
5	Marseille	18	10	4	4	+13	34
6	Nimes	18	9	5	4	+11	32
7	Nantes	18	9	4	5	+12	31
8	Montpellier	18	8	7	3	+11	31
9	Nice	18	9	4	5	+3	31
10	Rennes	18	7	7	4	+7	28
11	Reims	18	7	7	4	+1	28
12	Bordeaux	18	7	6	5	+4	27
13	Strasbourg	18	6	8	4	+8	26
14	Angers	18	5	8	5	+2	23
15	Amiens	18	6	5	7	-3	23
16	Toulouse	18	4	9	5	-3	21
17	Dijon	18	5	4	9	-12	19
18	Caen	18	4	5	9	-10	17
19	Guingamp	18	3	6	9	-11	15
20	Monaco	18	3	6	9	-12	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	18	12	2	4	+19	38
2	Lille	18	9	5	4	+6	32
3	Lyon	18	8	5	5	+3	29
4	Montpellier	18	7	6	5	+1	27
5	St Etienne	18	6	6	6	-2	24
6	Angers	18	5	7	6	-2	22
7	Nice	18	5	7	6	-7	22
8	Reims	18	4	9	5	-7	21
9	Marseille	18	6	3	9	-9	21
10	Strasbourg	18	4	8	6	+3	20
11	Nimes	18	6	2	10	-11	20
12	Monaco	18	4	6	8	-7	18
13	Rennes	18	4	6	8	-8	18
14	Toulouse	18	4	5	9	-15	17
15	Caen	18	3	7	8	-10	16
16	Nantes	18	4	4	10	-11	16
17	Dijon	18	3	3	12	-14	12
18	Amiens	18	2	6	10	-17	12
19	Bordeaux	18	2	5	11	-12	11
20	Guingamp	18	2	5	11	-28	11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.