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Ligue 1

Referee: Francois Letexier

Toulouse

S T U U U

1–2

Full-time

Marseille

S U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,8

3,8

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 41%

25%

57%

Points per game

1,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

36%

54%

Both score Ø 46%

46%

Average goals

2,3

3,2

Scored

0,9

2,0

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

36% Possession 64%

10 Shots 23

4 Shots on target 9

3 Blocked shots 2

7 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 7

2 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 19

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 17. · Marseille 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	29	25	2	2	+72	77
2	Monaco	29	19	6	4	+41	63
3	Marseille	28	16	8	4	+24	56
4	Lyon	29	15	9	5	+25	54
5	Nantes	29	12	7	10	+0	43
6	Rennes	29	12	6	11	+1	42
7	Nice	29	12	6	11	-2	42
8	Montpellier	29	9	14	6	+3	41
9	Bordeaux	29	10	7	12	-4	37
10	Dijon	29	10	7	12	-14	37
11	St Etienne	29	9	9	11	-13	36
12	Caen	29	10	5	14	-11	35
13	Guingamp	29	9	8	12	-13	35
14	Angers	29	7	11	11	-8	32
15	Strasbourg	29	8	7	14	-19	31
16	Amiens	29	8	6	15	-9	30
17	Toulouse	28	7	8	13	-11	29
18	Troyes	29	8	4	17	-15	28
19	Lille	29	7	7	15	-18	28
20	Metz	29	5	5	19	-29	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	15	15	0	0	+50	45
2	Monaco	15	12	2	1	+27	38
3	Marseille	14	9	4	1	+20	31
4	Dijon	15	9	3	3	+9	30
5	Lyon	14	7	5	2	+9	26
6	Nice	15	8	2	5	+3	26
7	Caen	15	7	3	5	+1	24
8	Nantes	14	7	2	5	+2	23
9	Montpellier	15	5	7	3	+4	22
10	Bordeaux	14	6	4	4	+2	22
11	Strasbourg	15	6	4	5	+0	22
12	St Etienne	14	5	6	3	-1	21
13	Guingamp	15	5	6	4	-1	21
14	Troyes	15	6	3	6	-1	21
15	Rennes	14	6	2	6	-2	20
16	Toulouse	13	5	4	4	+2	19
17	Amiens	14	5	3	6	+0	18
18	Lille	15	4	5	6	-5	17
19	Angers	14	4	4	6	-6	16
20	Metz	14	3	2	9	-11	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	10	2	2	+22	32
2	Lyon	15	8	4	3	+16	28
3	Monaco	14	7	4	3	+14	25
4	Marseille	14	7	4	3	+4	25
5	Rennes	15	6	4	5	+3	22
6	Nantes	15	5	5	5	-2	20
7	Montpellier	14	4	7	3	-1	19
8	Angers	15	3	7	5	-2	16
9	Nice	14	4	4	6	-5	16
10	Bordeaux	15	4	3	8	-6	15
11	St Etienne	15	4	3	8	-12	15
12	Guingamp	14	4	2	8	-12	14
13	Amiens	15	3	3	9	-9	12
14	Caen	14	3	2	9	-12	11
15	Lille	14	3	2	9	-13	11
16	Toulouse	15	2	4	9	-13	10
17	Metz	15	2	3	10	-18	9
18	Strasbourg	14	2	3	9	-19	9
19	Troyes	14	2	1	11	-14	7
20	Dijon	14	1	4	9	-23	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.