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Ligue 1

Referee: Benoit Millot

Marseille

S U T T S

2–0

Full-time

Toulouse

S T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,2

3,3

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,7

This season — Ligue 1 · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,2

3,3

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

63% Possession 37%

23 Shots 8

6 Shots on target 1

11 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

12 Corners 5

1 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Marseille 9. · Toulouse 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	7	6	1	0	+18	19
2	Monaco	7	6	0	1	+13	18
3	Bordeaux	7	4	3	0	+6	15
4	St Etienne	7	4	2	1	+3	14
5	Nantes	7	4	1	2	+0	13
6	Lyon	7	3	3	1	+4	12
7	Caen	7	4	0	3	+2	12
8	Nice	7	3	1	3	+2	10
9	Marseille	6	3	1	2	-1	10
10	Guingamp	7	3	0	4	-3	9
11	Angers	7	1	5	1	+1	8
12	Troyes	7	2	2	3	-1	8
13	Montpellier	7	2	2	3	-1	8
14	Toulouse	6	2	1	3	-4	7
15	Rennes	7	1	3	3	-1	6
16	Amiens	7	2	0	5	-6	6
17	Dijon	7	1	2	4	-7	5
18	Lille	7	1	2	4	-7	5
19	Strasbourg	7	1	1	5	-8	4
20	Metz	7	1	0	6	-10	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	4	4	0	0	+11	12
2	Monaco	3	3	0	0	+9	9
3	Bordeaux	3	3	0	0	+5	9
4	Caen	4	3	0	1	+2	9
5	Lyon	4	2	2	0	+5	8
6	St Etienne	4	2	2	0	+4	8
7	Nice	4	2	1	1	+5	7
8	Toulouse	3	2	0	1	+1	6
9	Guingamp	3	2	0	1	+0	6
10	Montpellier	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Marseille	3	1	1	1	+1	4
12	Nantes	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Lille	4	1	1	2	-3	4
14	Strasbourg	3	1	0	2	+1	3
15	Amiens	3	1	0	2	-1	3
16	Dijon	3	1	0	2	-3	3
17	Angers	3	0	2	1	-1	2
18	Troyes	4	0	2	2	-2	2
19	Rennes	3	0	1	2	-2	1
20	Metz	4	0	0	4	-8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	4	3	0	1	+4	9
2	Nantes	4	3	0	1	+0	9
3	Paris SG	3	2	1	0	+7	7
4	Angers	4	1	3	0	+2	6
5	Bordeaux	4	1	3	0	+1	6
6	Troyes	3	2	0	1	+1	6
7	St Etienne	3	2	0	1	-1	6
8	Marseille	3	2	0	1	-2	6
9	Rennes	4	1	2	1	+1	5
10	Lyon	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	Caen	3	1	0	2	+0	3
12	Montpellier	3	1	0	2	-1	3
13	Metz	3	1	0	2	-2	3
14	Guingamp	4	1	0	3	-3	3
15	Nice	3	1	0	2	-3	3
16	Amiens	4	1	0	3	-5	3
17	Dijon	4	0	2	2	-4	2
18	Lille	3	0	1	2	-4	1
19	Toulouse	3	0	1	2	-5	1
20	Strasbourg	4	0	1	3	-9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.