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Ligue 1

Referee: K Abed

Toulouse

T U T S T

2–3

Full-time

Lyon

U T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Lyon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

3,2

1,5

Scored

1,2

0,7

Conceded

2,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,2

This season — Ligue 1 · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 27%

27%

Points per game

1,1

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

55%

36%

Both score Ø 41%

55%

27%

Average goals

2,9

2,3

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

34% Possession 66%

12 Shots 21

5 Shots on target 8

3 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 5

3 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 4

3 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 17. · Lyon 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	9	0	3	+19	27
2	Nantes	11	6	1	4	+2	19
3	Marseille	12	5	4	3	-2	19
4	Lille	12	5	3	4	+5	18
5	Reims	11	5	3	3	+5	18
6	Angers	11	5	2	4	+0	17
7	Brest	11	4	5	2	+0	17
8	Bordeaux	11	4	3	4	+1	15
9	Rennes	11	4	3	4	+1	15
10	Montpellier	11	4	3	4	+1	15
11	Monaco	11	4	3	4	-2	15
12	St Etienne	11	4	3	4	-4	15
13	Lyon	11	3	4	4	+7	13
14	Amiens	11	3	4	4	-2	13
15	Nice	11	4	1	6	-5	13
16	Strasbourg	11	3	3	5	-5	12
17	Toulouse	11	3	3	5	-6	12
18	Dijon	12	3	3	6	-6	12
19	Nimes	11	2	5	4	-2	11
20	Metz	11	3	2	6	-7	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Lille	6	5	1	0	+10	16
2	Paris SG	6	5	0	1	+14	15
3	Angers	6	4	1	1	+9	13
4	Montpellier	6	4	1	1	+4	13
5	Nantes	6	4	1	1	+3	13
6	Brest	6	3	3	0	+5	12
7	Marseille	6	3	2	1	+2	11
8	Strasbourg	6	3	2	1	+1	11
9	Monaco	6	3	1	2	+2	10
10	Reims	6	2	3	1	+2	9
11	Toulouse	5	3	0	2	+0	9
12	Lyon	6	2	2	2	+6	8
13	Dijon	6	2	2	2	-1	8
14	Nimes	5	2	1	2	+2	7
15	Metz	5	2	1	2	+1	7
16	Amiens	5	2	1	2	+0	7
17	Rennes	5	2	1	2	+0	7
18	Nice	5	2	1	2	-2	7
19	St Etienne	5	1	3	1	+0	6
20	Bordeaux	5	1	2	2	+0	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	6	4	0	2	+5	12
2	Bordeaux	6	3	1	2	+1	10
3	Reims	5	3	0	2	+3	9
4	St Etienne	6	3	0	3	-4	9
5	Rennes	6	2	2	2	+1	8
6	Marseille	6	2	2	2	-4	8
7	Nantes	5	2	0	3	-1	6
8	Amiens	6	1	3	2	-2	6
9	Nice	6	2	0	4	-3	6
10	Lyon	5	1	2	2	+1	5
11	Monaco	5	1	2	2	-4	5
12	Brest	5	1	2	2	-5	5
13	Nimes	6	0	4	2	-4	4
14	Dijon	6	1	1	4	-5	4
15	Metz	6	1	1	4	-8	4
16	Angers	5	1	1	3	-9	4
17	Toulouse	6	0	3	3	-6	3
18	Montpellier	5	0	2	3	-3	2
19	Lille	6	0	2	4	-5	2
20	Strasbourg	5	0	1	4	-6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.