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Serie A

Referee: M Fabbri

Inter

S S T S T

2–0

Full-time

Genoa

S T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Inter Genoa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,7

3,0

Scored

2,3

1,7

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 52%

81%

23%

Points per game

2,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

58%

62%

Both score Ø 52%

42%

62%

Average goals

3,2

2,7

Scored

2,4

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,6

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,61 xG 0,21

56% Possession 44%

14 Shots 6

6 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

10 Corners 2

2 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Inter 1. · Genoa 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	26	21	1	4	+41	+33.0	64
2	Milan	26	15	9	2	+21	+14.2	54
3	Napoli	27	16	5	6	+13	+8.7	53
4	Roma	26	16	2	8	+18	+10.3	50
5	Como	27	13	9	5	+24	+19.7	48
6	Juventus	26	13	7	6	+18	+22.9	46
7	Atalanta	26	12	9	5	+14	+9.2	45
8	Bologna	26	10	6	10	+3	+0.3	36
9	Sassuolo	26	10	5	11	-3	-7.6	35
10	Lazio	26	8	10	8	+1	-8.3	34
11	Parma	27	8	9	10	-12	-14.6	33
12	Udinese	26	9	5	12	-11	-7.3	32
13	Cagliari	27	7	9	11	-7	-13.5	30
14	Genoa	26	6	9	11	-5	-0.7	27
15	Torino	26	7	6	13	-22	-10.0	27
16	Fiorentina	26	5	9	12	-9	+5.2	24
17	Cremonese	26	5	9	12	-15	-16.2	24
18	Lecce	27	6	6	15	-18	-20.4	24
19	Pisa	26	1	12	13	-23	-15.3	15
20	Verona	27	2	9	16	-28	-9.5	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	13	10	1	2	+24	+20.1	31
2	Roma	13	9	1	3	+13	+9.4	28
3	Atalanta	14	8	4	2	+11	+13.1	28
4	Napoli	12	8	4	0	+10	+1.2	28
5	Como	14	7	5	2	+14	+14.6	26
6	Juventus	13	7	5	1	+13	+14.4	26
7	Milan	13	7	4	2	+7	+10.8	25
8	Lazio	13	5	4	4	+2	-0.3	19
9	Bologna	13	5	2	6	-1	+3.2	17
10	Sassuolo	13	5	2	6	-4	-5.8	17
11	Cagliari	13	4	4	5	+0	-4.8	16
12	Genoa	14	4	4	6	-1	+0.7	16
13	Udinese	13	4	4	5	-5	-0.5	16
14	Parma	14	3	5	6	-8	-7.7	14
15	Torino	13	4	2	7	-9	-5.5	14
16	Fiorentina	13	3	4	6	-1	+7.4	13
17	Lecce	14	3	4	7	-9	-4.0	13
18	Cremonese	12	2	6	4	-4	-1.6	12
19	Verona	13	1	4	8	-9	-2.4	7
20	Pisa	13	1	4	8	-12	-5.2	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	13	11	0	2	+17	+12.9	33
2	Milan	13	8	5	0	+14	+3.3	29
3	Napoli	15	8	1	6	+3	+7.5	25
4	Como	13	6	4	3	+10	+5.1	22
5	Roma	13	7	1	5	+5	+0.9	22
6	Juventus	13	6	2	5	+5	+8.6	20
7	Bologna	13	5	4	4	+4	-2.9	19
8	Parma	13	5	4	4	-4	-6.9	19
9	Sassuolo	13	5	3	5	+1	-1.8	18
10	Atalanta	12	4	5	3	+3	-3.9	17
11	Udinese	13	5	1	7	-6	-6.8	16
12	Lazio	13	3	6	4	-1	-7.9	15
13	Cagliari	14	3	5	6	-7	-8.7	14
14	Torino	13	3	4	6	-13	-4.5	13
15	Cremonese	14	3	3	8	-11	-14.6	12
16	Genoa	12	2	5	5	-4	-1.4	11
17	Fiorentina	13	2	5	6	-8	-2.2	11
18	Lecce	13	3	2	8	-9	-16.4	11
19	Pisa	13	0	8	5	-11	-10.1	8
20	Verona	14	1	5	8	-19	-7.1	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.