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Serie A

Referee: L Pairetto

Udinese

S S T T T

3–0

Full-time

Fiorentina

U S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Udinese Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,2

3,3

Scored

1,0

1,8

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 27%

35%

19%

Points per game

1,2

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

50%

62%

Both score Ø 64%

58%

69%

Average goals

2,6

2,7

Scored

1,1

1,2

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,4

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,58 xG 0,73

35% Possession 65%

10 Shots 10

7 Shots on target 0

2 Blocked shots 4

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 2

16 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Udinese 12. · Fiorentina 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	27	22	1	4	+43	+34.4	67
2	Milan	27	16	9	2	+23	+16.8	57
3	Napoli	27	16	5	6	+13	+8.7	53
4	Roma	27	16	3	8	+18	+10.6	51
5	Como	27	13	9	5	+24	+19.7	48
6	Juventus	27	13	8	6	+18	+22.6	47
7	Atalanta	27	12	9	6	+13	+10.9	45
8	Bologna	27	11	6	10	+4	+0.5	39
9	Sassuolo	27	11	5	11	-2	-9.3	38
10	Lazio	27	8	10	9	-1	-7.9	34
11	Parma	27	8	9	10	-12	-14.6	33
12	Udinese	26	9	5	12	-11	-7.3	32
13	Cagliari	27	7	9	11	-7	-13.5	30
14	Torino	27	8	6	13	-20	-10.3	30
15	Genoa	27	6	9	12	-7	-2.1	27
16	Fiorentina	26	5	9	12	-9	+5.2	24
17	Cremonese	27	5	9	13	-17	-18.8	24
18	Lecce	27	6	6	15	-18	-20.4	24
19	Pisa	27	1	12	14	-24	-15.5	15
20	Verona	27	2	9	16	-28	-9.5	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	14	11	1	2	+26	+21.5	34
2	Roma	14	9	2	3	+13	+9.7	29
3	Atalanta	14	8	4	2	+11	+13.1	28
4	Napoli	12	8	4	0	+10	+1.2	28
5	Como	14	7	5	2	+14	+14.6	26
6	Juventus	13	7	5	1	+13	+14.4	26
7	Milan	13	7	4	2	+7	+10.8	25
8	Sassuolo	14	6	2	6	-3	-7.5	20
9	Lazio	13	5	4	4	+2	-0.3	19
10	Bologna	13	5	2	6	-1	+3.2	17
11	Torino	14	5	2	7	-7	-5.9	17
12	Cagliari	13	4	4	5	+0	-4.8	16
13	Genoa	14	4	4	6	-1	+0.7	16
14	Udinese	13	4	4	5	-5	-0.5	16
15	Parma	14	3	5	6	-8	-7.7	14
16	Fiorentina	13	3	4	6	-1	+7.4	13
17	Lecce	14	3	4	7	-9	-4.0	13
18	Cremonese	13	2	6	5	-6	-4.2	12
19	Verona	13	1	4	8	-9	-2.4	7
20	Pisa	14	1	4	9	-13	-5.4	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	13	11	0	2	+17	+12.9	33
2	Milan	14	9	5	0	+16	+6.0	32
3	Napoli	15	8	1	6	+3	+7.5	25
4	Como	13	6	4	3	+10	+5.1	22
5	Bologna	14	6	4	4	+5	-2.7	22
6	Roma	13	7	1	5	+5	+0.9	22
7	Juventus	14	6	3	5	+5	+8.3	21
8	Parma	13	5	4	4	-4	-6.9	19
9	Sassuolo	13	5	3	5	+1	-1.8	18
10	Atalanta	13	4	5	4	+2	-2.2	17
11	Udinese	13	5	1	7	-6	-6.8	16
12	Lazio	14	3	6	5	-3	-7.6	15
13	Cagliari	14	3	5	6	-7	-8.7	14
14	Torino	13	3	4	6	-13	-4.5	13
15	Cremonese	14	3	3	8	-11	-14.6	12
16	Genoa	13	2	5	6	-6	-2.8	11
17	Fiorentina	13	2	5	6	-8	-2.2	11
18	Lecce	13	3	2	8	-9	-16.4	11
19	Pisa	13	0	8	5	-11	-10.1	8
20	Verona	14	1	5	8	-19	-7.1	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.