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Conference League
Referee: G Kabakov
Fiorentina
S S T T U
2–1
Full-time
Rakow
U S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Rakow
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,7
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,7
2,2
Scored
1,3
1,3
Conceded
1,3
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 10/12 matches
Win Ø 68%
60%
75%
Points per game
1,8
2,4
Over 2.5 Ø 52%
70%
33%
Both score Ø 37%
40%
33%
Average goals
3,0
2,1
Scored
1,9
1,7
Conceded
1,1
0,4
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,77 xG 0,78
58% Possession 42%
18 Shots 7
6 Shots on target 3
6 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 4
8 Corners 3
0 Offside 1
12 Free kicks against 14
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Fiorentina Rakow
32′
🟨 Karol Struski
Half-time 0–0
Luca Ranieri 🟨
48′
A. Gudmundsson 🔁
↦ J. Fazzini
58′
J. Harrison 🔁
↦ R. Gosens
58′
59′
🔁 L. Diaby-Fadiga
↦ I. Lopez
59′
🔁 Z. Arsenic
↦ T. Pienko
60′
⚽ J. Brunes 0–1
P. Makuch
1–1 C. Ndour ⚽
R. Mandragora
62′
Dodo 🔁
↦ N. Fortini
68′
70′
🔁 M. Bulat
↦ K. Struski
79′
🔁 L. Rocha
↦ J. Brunes
80′
🟨 Fran Tudor
R. Braschi 🔁
↦ R. Piccoli
82′
N. Fagioli 🔁
↦ R. Mandragora
82′
Fabiano Parisi 🟨
85′
2–1 A. Gudmundsson ⚽
90′
Nicolò Fagioli 🟨
96′
96′
🟨 Oliwier Zych
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Fiorentina

4-5-1
53 O. Christensen G
29 N. Fortini D
15 P. Comuzzo D
6 L. Ranieri D
21 R. Gosens D
65 F. Parisi M
80 G. Fabbian M
8 R. Mandragora M
27 C. Ndour M
22 J. Fazzini M
91 R. Piccoli F
Bench (11)
43 D. de Gea
50 P. Leonardelli
10 A. Gudmundsson
61 R. Braschi
60 E. Kouadio
63 P. Bonanno
2 Dodo
17 J. Harrison
44 N. Fagioli
67 E. Sadotti
62 L. Balbo

Coach: Paolo Vanoli

Rakow

3-4-3
48 O. Zych G
7 F. Tudor D
25 B. Racovitan D
4 S. Svarnas D
19 M. Ameyaw M
23 K. Struski M
6 O. Repka M
8 T. Pienko M
9 P. Makuch F
18 J. Brunes F
10 I. Lopez F
Bench (11)
1 K. Trelowski
5 M. Bulat
17 L. Rocha
80 L. Diaby-Fadiga
11 Adriano
44 B. Mircetic
21 J. Napieraj
24 Z. Arsenic
2 A. Mosor
35 M. Ilenic
31 D. Czeremski

Coach: Lukasz Tomczyk

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

G Kabakov · 28 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,6 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
20,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.