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Champions League
Referee: M Mariani
Man City
S U S S S
5–0
Full-time
Sparta Praha
S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Sparta Praha
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,3
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
83%
33%
Both score Ø 67%
83%
50%
Average goals
3,5
2,7
Scored
2,3
2,0
Conceded
1,2
0,7
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 2/8 matches
Win Ø 63%
50%
75%
Points per game
2,0
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 44%
50%
38%
Both score Ø 25%
0%
50%
Average goals
2,0
3,0
Scored
2,0
2,3
Conceded
0,0
0,8
Goal diff per game
+2,0
+1,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,93 xG 0,23
80% Possession 20%
22 Shots 5
10 Shots on target 1
9 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 5
7 Corners 1
0 Offside 1
5 Free kicks against 4
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Man City Sparta Praha
1–0 P. Foden ⚽
M. Akanji
3′
John Stones 🟨
7′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 E. Krasniqi
↦ L. Haraslín
Nathan Aké ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
48′
2–0 E. Haaland ⚽
Savinho
58′
60′
🔁 A. Rrahmani
↦ V. Olatunji
3–0 J. Stones ⚽
Matheus Nunes
64′
4–0 E. Haaland ⚽
Matheus Nunes
68′
M. Kovačić 🔁
↦ İ. Gündoğan
69′
J. McAtee 🔁
↦ Bernardo Silva
69′
J. Gvardiol 🔁
↦ N. Aké
74′
Rúben Dias 🔁
↦ J. Stones
74′
74′
🔁 K. Daněk
↦ V. Birmančević
N. O'Reilly 🔁
↦ E. Haaland
81′
87′
🟨 Ángelo Preciado
5–0 Matheus Nunes ⚽
88′
89′
🔁 M. Solbakken
↦ K. Kairinen
89′
🔁 T. Wiesner
↦ M. Ryneš
Full-time 5–0

Line-ups

Man City

4-1-4-1
18 S. Ortega G
82 R. Lewis D
5 J. Stones D
25 M. Akanji D
6 N. Aké D
19 İ. Gündoğan M
26 Savinho M
47 P. Foden M
20 Bernardo Silva M
27 Matheus Nunes M
9 E. Haaland F
Bench (7)
8 M. Kovačić
87 J. McAtee
24 J. Gvardiol
3 Rúben Dias
75 N. O'Reilly
33 S. Carson
31 Ederson

Coach: Pep Guardiola

Sparta Praha

3-4-3
1 P. Vindahl G
41 M. Vitík D
27 F. Panák D
25 A. Sørensen D
17 Á. Preciado M
6 K. Kairinen M
20 Q. Laçi M
32 M. Ryneš M
14 V. Birmančević F
7 V. Olatunji F
22 L. Haraslín F
Bench (12)
29 E. Krasniqi
10 A. Rrahmani
13 K. Daněk
4 M. Solbakken
28 T. Wiesner
44 J. Surovčík
5 M. Ross
18 L. Sadílek
8 D. Pavelka
24 V. Vorel
21 J. Pešek
2 M. Suchomel

Coach: L. Friis

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Mariani · 156 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.