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Serie A

Referee: M Piccinini

Milan

S T U U S

0–1

Full-time

Atalanta

S T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Atalanta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

83%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

83%

Average goals

3,5

1,7

Scored

2,2

1,0

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 50%

44%

56%

Points per game

1,6

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

63%

53%

Both score Ø 53%

59%

47%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,6

2,0

Conceded

1,2

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+1,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,65 xG 1,82

48% Possession 52%

12 Shots 11

1 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

7 Corners 5

2 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 7

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 9. · Atalanta 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	33	21	8	4	+40	+31.5	71
2	Napoli	33	21	8	4	+27	+19.6	71
3	Atalanta	32	18	7	7	+35	+22.7	61
4	Bologna	33	16	12	5	+15	+11.9	60
5	Juventus	32	15	14	3	+19	+13.0	59
6	Roma	33	16	9	8	+16	+11.6	57
7	Lazio	32	16	8	8	+10	+13.4	56
8	Fiorentina	32	15	8	9	+17	+4.7	53
9	Milan	32	14	9	9	+14	+20.2	51
10	Torino	32	9	13	10	-1	-14.5	40
11	Udinese	32	11	7	14	-10	-9.2	40
12	Como	33	10	9	14	-5	+2.8	39
13	Genoa	32	9	12	11	-9	-7.7	39
14	Verona	33	9	5	19	-30	-16.9	32
15	Cagliari	32	7	9	16	-15	-11.7	30
16	Parma	32	5	13	14	-14	-15.1	28
17	Lecce	33	6	8	19	-32	-21.9	26
18	Venezia	33	4	13	16	-19	-17.2	25
19	Empoli	33	4	13	16	-26	-16.4	25
20	Monza	33	2	9	22	-32	-20.8	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	16	12	3	1	+19	+15.6	39
2	Napoli	16	12	2	2	+15	+14.9	38
3	Bologna	17	10	6	1	+17	+14.8	36
4	Roma	17	11	2	4	+19	+10.5	35
5	Juventus	17	9	7	1	+12	+8.6	34
6	Fiorentina	17	10	4	3	+12	+8.1	34
7	Atalanta	16	8	4	4	+12	+10.5	28
8	Milan	16	7	7	2	+11	+10.6	28
9	Lazio	16	7	7	2	+8	+10.2	28
10	Como	16	6	5	5	+1	+2.1	23
11	Udinese	16	7	2	7	-3	-4.0	23
12	Genoa	16	5	7	4	+0	-1.5	22
13	Torino	15	5	6	4	+1	-6.3	21
14	Cagliari	16	5	4	7	-5	-1.3	19
15	Parma	16	4	5	7	-3	-2.7	17
16	Venezia	16	4	5	7	-3	-2.0	17
17	Lecce	17	3	6	8	-18	-8.4	15
18	Verona	16	4	3	9	-19	-4.3	15
19	Empoli	16	1	7	8	-15	-7.8	10
20	Monza	17	1	5	11	-12	-6.7	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Atalanta	16	10	3	3	+23	+12.2	33
2	Napoli	17	9	6	2	+12	+4.7	33
3	Inter	17	9	5	3	+21	+15.8	32
4	Lazio	16	9	1	6	+2	+3.2	28
5	Juventus	15	6	7	2	+7	+4.4	25
6	Bologna	16	6	6	4	-2	-2.9	24
7	Milan	16	7	2	7	+3	+9.6	23
8	Roma	16	5	7	4	-3	+1.1	22
9	Fiorentina	15	5	4	6	+5	-3.4	19
10	Torino	17	4	7	6	-2	-8.3	19
11	Udinese	16	4	5	7	-7	-5.2	17
12	Genoa	16	4	5	7	-9	-6.2	17
13	Verona	17	5	2	10	-11	-12.6	17
14	Como	17	4	4	9	-6	+0.7	16
15	Empoli	17	3	6	8	-11	-8.6	15
16	Cagliari	16	2	5	9	-10	-10.4	11
17	Parma	16	1	8	7	-11	-12.5	11
18	Lecce	16	3	2	11	-14	-13.5	11
19	Venezia	17	0	8	9	-16	-15.1	8
20	Monza	16	1	4	11	-20	-14.1	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.