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Serie A

Referee: L Marinelli

Fiorentina

S S T T T

1–0

Full-time

Lecce

T S U U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Lecce

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,3

Scored

1,3

0,7

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 35%

46%

23%

Points per game

1,6

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

58%

42%

Both score Ø 45%

54%

35%

Average goals

2,7

2,3

Scored

1,6

0,7

Conceded

1,1

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,69 xG 0,78

47% Possession 53%

10 Shots 8

3 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 2

5 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 7. · Lecce 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	26	17	6	3	+35	+26.9	57
2	Napoli	26	17	5	4	+21	+15.3	56
3	Atalanta	26	16	6	4	+33	+20.2	54
4	Juventus	26	12	13	1	+22	+13.3	49
5	Lazio	26	14	5	7	+13	+12.3	47
6	Bologna	26	11	11	4	+8	+8.8	44
7	Fiorentina	26	12	6	8	+13	+6.1	42
8	Milan	26	11	8	7	+10	+16.0	41
9	Roma	26	11	7	8	+11	+7.0	40
10	Udinese	26	10	6	10	-4	-9.6	36
11	Torino	26	7	10	9	-3	-12.3	31
12	Genoa	26	7	9	10	-10	-5.7	30
13	Como	26	7	7	12	-9	+0.9	28
14	Verona	26	8	2	16	-27	-14.6	26
15	Cagliari	26	6	7	13	-14	-9.3	25
16	Lecce	26	6	7	13	-24	-16.7	25
17	Parma	26	5	8	13	-13	-14.0	23
18	Empoli	26	4	9	13	-21	-13.7	21
19	Venezia	26	3	8	15	-19	-16.2	17
20	Monza	26	2	8	16	-22	-14.7	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	13	9	3	1	+15	+11.7	30
2	Napoli	12	9	1	2	+10	+12.5	28
3	Bologna	13	7	5	1	+10	+11.7	26
4	Roma	13	8	1	4	+16	+8.3	25
5	Juventus	13	6	7	0	+12	+9.1	25
6	Lazio	13	7	4	2	+8	+9.0	25
7	Atalanta	12	7	3	2	+13	+10.7	24
8	Milan	13	6	6	1	+11	+11.7	24
9	Fiorentina	13	7	3	3	+7	+7.0	24
10	Udinese	13	6	2	5	+1	-5.0	20
11	Como	13	5	3	5	+0	+2.0	18
12	Torino	13	4	5	4	+0	-6.1	17
13	Genoa	13	3	6	4	-2	-0.9	15
14	Parma	14	4	3	7	-3	-3.3	15
15	Cagliari	14	4	3	7	-8	-2.4	15
16	Lecce	13	3	5	5	-13	-4.0	14
17	Venezia	13	3	4	6	-3	-1.7	13
18	Verona	13	4	1	8	-18	-5.1	13
19	Empoli	13	1	5	7	-14	-5.4	8
20	Monza	13	1	4	8	-7	-4.7	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Atalanta	14	9	3	2	+20	+9.6	30
2	Napoli	14	8	4	2	+11	+2.8	28
3	Inter	13	8	3	2	+20	+15.2	27
4	Juventus	13	6	6	1	+10	+4.2	24
5	Lazio	13	7	1	5	+5	+3.3	22
6	Fiorentina	13	5	3	5	+6	-0.9	18
7	Bologna	13	4	6	3	-2	-2.8	18
8	Milan	13	5	2	6	-1	+4.4	17
9	Udinese	13	4	4	5	-5	-4.6	16
10	Roma	13	3	6	4	-5	-1.3	15
11	Genoa	13	4	3	6	-8	-4.8	15
12	Torino	13	3	5	5	-3	-6.2	14
13	Empoli	13	3	4	6	-7	-8.4	13
14	Verona	13	4	1	8	-9	-9.5	13
15	Lecce	13	3	2	8	-11	-12.7	11
16	Cagliari	12	2	4	6	-6	-7.0	10
17	Como	13	2	4	7	-9	-1.1	10
18	Parma	12	1	5	6	-10	-10.7	8
19	Monza	13	1	4	8	-15	-10.0	7
20	Venezia	13	0	4	9	-16	-14.5	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.