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Serie A

Referee: M Di Bello

Roma

T S S T S

5–0

Full-time

Parma

S T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Parma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,5

Scored

2,2

1,5

Conceded

1,3

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 22%

25%

19%

Points per game

1,0

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

44%

69%

Both score Ø 69%

50%

88%

Average goals

2,6

3,2

Scored

1,1

1,4

Conceded

1,4

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

5,44 xG 0,39

59% Possession 41%

19 Shots 9

9 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 2

4 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 12. · Parma 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	17	12	2	3	+14	+10.0	38
2	Atalanta	16	12	1	3	+22	+15.1	37
3	Inter	15	10	4	1	+25	+14.4	34
4	Lazio	17	11	1	5	+8	+12.8	34
5	Fiorentina	15	9	4	2	+17	+7.2	31
6	Juventus	16	6	10	0	+14	+11.0	28
7	Bologna	16	7	7	2	+5	+3.2	28
8	Milan	16	7	5	4	+9	+10.2	26
9	Udinese	16	6	2	8	-6	-7.5	20
10	Empoli	16	4	7	5	-2	-9.8	19
11	Torino	17	5	4	8	-5	-7.5	19
12	Roma	16	4	4	8	-5	-3.4	16
13	Genoa	17	3	7	7	-12	-9.7	16
14	Lecce	17	4	4	9	-18	-9.1	16
15	Parma	16	3	6	7	-5	-6.6	15
16	Como	16	3	6	7	-10	-0.1	15
17	Verona	17	5	0	12	-19	-11.5	15
18	Cagliari	16	3	5	8	-11	-2.8	14
19	Monza	16	1	7	8	-7	-7.3	10
20	Venezia	16	2	4	10	-14	-8.7	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Lazio	8	6	1	1	+5	+9.2	19
2	Atalanta	7	6	0	1	+13	+8.2	18
3	Napoli	8	6	0	2	+6	+7.9	18
4	Inter	8	5	2	1	+9	+6.4	17
5	Fiorentina	7	5	2	0	+9	+6.7	17
6	Milan	8	4	3	1	+9	+7.1	15
7	Juventus	9	3	6	0	+6	+8.0	15
8	Bologna	7	3	4	0	+5	+4.8	13
9	Roma	8	4	0	4	+3	+0.5	12
10	Udinese	8	4	0	4	-2	-4.2	12
11	Lecce	9	3	3	3	-8	-0.6	12
12	Como	7	2	3	2	-3	+0.7	9
13	Cagliari	9	2	3	4	-7	-0.1	9
14	Verona	9	3	0	6	-11	-4.5	9
15	Parma	9	2	2	5	-3	-3.4	8
16	Torino	8	2	2	4	-3	-5.9	8
17	Venezia	7	2	1	4	-2	+3.2	7
18	Empoli	8	1	4	3	-4	-3.1	7
19	Genoa	10	0	6	4	-7	-4.9	6
20	Monza	8	0	3	5	-5	-3.1	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	9	6	2	1	+8	+2.1	20
2	Atalanta	9	6	1	2	+9	+6.9	19
3	Inter	7	5	2	0	+16	+8.0	17
4	Lazio	9	5	0	4	+3	+3.5	15
5	Bologna	9	4	3	2	+0	-1.6	15
6	Fiorentina	8	4	2	2	+8	+0.5	14
7	Juventus	7	3	4	0	+8	+3.0	13
8	Empoli	8	3	3	2	+2	-6.7	12
9	Milan	8	3	2	3	+0	+3.1	11
10	Torino	9	3	2	4	-2	-1.5	11
11	Genoa	7	3	1	3	-5	-4.8	10
12	Udinese	8	2	2	4	-4	-3.3	8
13	Parma	7	1	4	2	-2	-3.2	7
14	Monza	8	1	4	3	-2	-4.2	7
15	Como	9	1	3	5	-7	-0.8	6
16	Verona	8	2	0	6	-8	-7.0	6
17	Cagliari	7	1	2	4	-4	-2.7	5
18	Roma	8	0	4	4	-8	-3.9	4
19	Lecce	8	1	1	6	-10	-8.5	4
20	Venezia	9	0	3	6	-12	-11.9	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.