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Serie A

Referee: M Di Bello

Cagliari

S U S T T

2–1

Full-time

Parma

U T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cagliari Parma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 20%

22%

17%

Points per game

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

48%

65%

Both score Ø 65%

52%

78%

Average goals

2,7

3,1

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,17 xG 0,83

39% Possession 61%

14 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 6

1 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cagliari 17. · Parma 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	23	17	3	3	+22	+14.7	54
2	Inter	23	15	6	2	+34	+24.6	51
3	Atalanta	24	15	5	4	+28	+18.8	50
4	Juventus	24	10	13	1	+20	+12.2	43
5	Fiorentina	23	12	6	5	+17	+7.6	42
6	Lazio	23	13	3	7	+9	+9.5	42
7	Milan	23	10	8	5	+11	+13.6	38
8	Bologna	22	9	10	3	+8	+6.4	37
9	Roma	24	9	7	8	+6	+4.9	34
10	Udinese	23	8	5	10	-8	-10.7	29
11	Torino	24	6	10	8	-3	-9.1	28
12	Genoa	24	6	9	9	-11	-6.3	27
13	Lecce	23	6	5	12	-23	-15.7	23
14	Verona	24	7	2	15	-27	-12.7	23
15	Como	24	5	7	12	-12	+1.0	22
16	Empoli	24	4	9	11	-13	-12.5	21
17	Cagliari	23	5	6	12	-14	-7.6	21
18	Parma	23	4	8	11	-13	-13.3	20
19	Venezia	24	3	7	14	-17	-15.1	16
20	Monza	23	2	7	14	-14	-10.5	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	11	9	0	2	+10	+12.2	27
2	Inter	11	7	3	1	+13	+10.0	24
3	Fiorentina	12	7	3	2	+9	+7.5	24
4	Atalanta	11	7	2	2	+13	+10.4	23
5	Roma	12	7	1	4	+12	+7.1	22
6	Juventus	12	5	7	0	+11	+9.7	22
7	Milan	12	5	6	1	+10	+9.9	21
8	Lazio	11	6	3	2	+4	+6.3	21
9	Bologna	11	5	5	1	+8	+9.1	20
10	Udinese	12	5	2	5	-2	-5.1	17
11	Como	12	4	3	5	-1	+2.7	15
12	Torino	12	3	5	4	-1	-4.0	14
13	Lecce	11	3	4	4	-12	-2.3	13
14	Venezia	12	3	3	6	-3	-1.6	12
15	Parma	12	3	3	6	-4	-3.0	12
16	Genoa	12	2	6	4	-4	-1.9	12
17	Cagliari	12	3	3	6	-8	-0.9	12
18	Verona	12	3	1	8	-19	-4.9	10
19	Empoli	12	1	5	6	-9	-4.2	8
20	Monza	12	1	3	8	-7	-4.0	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	12	8	3	1	+21	+14.6	27
2	Atalanta	13	8	3	2	+15	+8.4	27
3	Napoli	12	8	3	1	+12	+2.5	27
4	Juventus	12	5	6	1	+9	+2.5	21
5	Lazio	12	7	0	5	+5	+3.2	21
6	Fiorentina	11	5	3	3	+8	+0.1	18
7	Milan	11	5	2	4	+1	+3.8	17
8	Bologna	11	4	5	2	+0	-2.7	17
9	Genoa	12	4	3	5	-7	-4.3	15
10	Torino	12	3	5	4	-2	-5.1	14
11	Empoli	12	3	4	5	-4	-8.3	13
12	Verona	12	4	1	7	-8	-7.7	13
13	Udinese	11	3	3	5	-6	-5.5	12
14	Roma	12	2	6	4	-6	-2.2	12
15	Lecce	12	3	1	8	-11	-13.4	10
16	Cagliari	11	2	3	6	-6	-6.7	9
17	Parma	11	1	5	5	-9	-10.4	8
18	Monza	11	1	4	6	-7	-6.4	7
19	Como	12	1	4	7	-11	-1.7	7
20	Venezia	12	0	4	8	-14	-13.5	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.