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Serie A

Referee: F Fourneau

Milan

U S T T T

5–1

Full-time

Sampdoria

U T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Sampdoria

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 9%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,8

2,5

Scored

0,7

0,5

Conceded

1,2

2,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 29%

49%

Points per game

1,7

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

51%

40%

Both score Ø 50%

60%

40%

Average goals

2,7

2,4

Scored

1,6

0,6

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

3,80 xG 0,62

62% Possession 38%

19 Shots 6

9 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 2

2 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 6. · Sampdoria 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	35	26	5	4	+45	+11.3	83
2	Juventus	35	21	6	8	+26	+8.3	69
3	Inter	35	21	3	11	+29	+17.9	66
4	Lazio	35	19	8	8	+26	+2.4	65
5	Atalanta	36	18	7	11	+16	+4.2	61
6	Milan	35	17	10	8	+14	+2.6	61
7	Roma	35	17	8	10	+12	+7.6	59
8	Monza	36	14	10	12	+0	-3.0	52
9	Bologna	36	13	11	12	+3	-1.1	50
10	Fiorentina	35	13	10	12	+7	+7.4	49
11	Torino	35	13	10	12	-2	+4.2	49
12	Udinese	35	11	13	11	+2	-4.7	46
13	Sassuolo	36	12	8	16	-12	+3.9	44
14	Empoli	35	9	12	14	-13	-7.3	39
15	Salernitana	35	8	14	13	-13	-13.0	38
16	Lecce	35	7	11	17	-13	+0.5	32
17	Spezia	34	6	11	17	-26	-6.0	29
18	Verona	35	7	8	20	-26	-8.0	29
19	Cremonese	36	4	12	20	-34	-13.1	24
20	Sampdoria	35	3	9	23	-41	-14.0	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	18	13	3	2	+24	+6.0	42
2	Inter	18	13	0	5	+22	+8.6	39
3	Napoli	17	12	3	2	+21	+4.8	39
4	Milan	17	11	4	2	+15	+4.5	37
5	Lazio	18	10	4	4	+13	+1.6	34
6	Roma	17	10	2	5	+12	+2.1	32
7	Atalanta	18	9	3	6	+9	+5.7	30
8	Fiorentina	18	8	6	4	+7	+9.1	30
9	Bologna	18	7	8	3	+10	-1.3	29
10	Sassuolo	18	8	4	6	+3	+1.5	28
11	Udinese	17	6	9	2	+12	+3.8	27
12	Monza	18	7	5	6	+4	+1.1	26
13	Empoli	17	7	4	6	-2	-0.9	25
14	Salernitana	18	6	6	6	+3	-6.1	24
15	Torino	17	5	6	6	-3	+2.1	21
16	Verona	18	6	2	10	-12	-5.2	20
17	Spezia	17	4	7	6	-8	-4.9	19
18	Lecce	17	3	7	7	-5	+2.7	16
19	Cremonese	18	3	4	11	-18	-6.1	13
20	Sampdoria	18	1	6	11	-16	-2.7	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	18	14	2	2	+24	+6.5	44
2	Lazio	17	9	4	4	+13	+0.8	31
3	Atalanta	18	9	4	5	+7	-1.5	31
4	Torino	18	8	4	6	+1	+2.0	28
5	Inter	17	8	3	6	+7	+9.3	27
6	Juventus	17	8	3	6	+2	+2.4	27
7	Roma	18	7	6	5	+0	+5.5	27
8	Monza	18	7	5	6	-4	-4.1	26
9	Milan	18	6	6	6	-1	-1.9	24
10	Bologna	18	6	3	9	-7	+0.2	21
11	Fiorentina	17	5	4	8	+0	-1.7	19
12	Udinese	18	5	4	9	-10	-8.5	19
13	Lecce	18	4	4	10	-8	-2.3	16
14	Sassuolo	18	4	4	10	-15	+2.4	16
15	Empoli	18	2	8	8	-11	-6.4	14
16	Salernitana	17	2	8	7	-16	-6.9	14
17	Cremonese	18	1	8	9	-16	-7.1	11
18	Spezia	17	2	4	11	-18	-1.1	10
19	Verona	17	1	6	10	-14	-2.8	9
20	Sampdoria	17	2	3	12	-25	-11.4	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.