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Champions League
Referee: C Turpin
Inter
S S S S S
1–0
Full-time
Milan
U U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Inter Milan
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
100%
33%
Points per game
3,0
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
50%
0%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
3,5
2,0
Scored
3,0
1,0
Conceded
0,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
+2,5
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 11/11 matches
Win Ø 50%
55%
45%
Points per game
1,9
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 32%
27%
36%
Both score Ø 23%
18%
27%
Average goals
2,5
2,3
Scored
1,6
1,4
Conceded
0,9
0,9
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,97 xG 0,48
44% Possession 56%
15 Shots 5
4 Shots on target 1
5 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 3
5 Corners 3
1 Offside 0
15 Free kicks against 22
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

10. May -23 Milan – Inter 0–2 5. Feb -23 Inter – Milan 1–0 3. Sep -22 Milan – Inter 3–2 5. Feb -22 Inter – Milan 1–2 7. Nov -21 Milan – Inter 1–1

Match report

Inter Milan
M. Brozović 🔁
↦ H. Mkhitaryan
44′
Half-time 0–0
56′
🟨 Malick Thiaw
64′
🔁 P. Kalulu
↦ M. Thiaw
R. Lukaku 🔁
↦ E. Džeko
66′
R. Gosens 🔁
↦ F. Dimarco
66′
1–0 Lautaro Martínez ⚽
R. Lukaku
74′
76′
🔁 A. Saelemaekers
↦ Junior Messias
76′
🔁 D. Origi
↦ Brahim Díaz
Nicolò Barella 🟨
79′
79′
🟨 Sandro Tonali
Lautaro Martínez 🟨
81′
81′
🟨 Fikayo Tomori
81′
🟨 Rade Krunić
R. Gagliardini 🔁
↦ N. Barella
84′
J. Correa 🔁
↦ Lautaro Martínez
84′
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Inter

3-5-2
24 A. Onana G
36 M. Darmian D
15 F. Acerbi D
95 A. Bastoni D
2 D. Dumfries M
23 N. Barella M
20 H. Çalhanoğlu M
22 H. Mkhitaryan M
32 F. Dimarco M
10 Lautaro Martínez F
9 E. Džeko F
Bench (12)
77 M. Brozović
90 R. Lukaku
8 R. Gosens
5 R. Gagliardini
11 J. Correa
21 A. Cordaz
1 S. Handanovič
33 D. D'Ambrosio
6 S. de Vrij
12 R. Bellanova
50 A. Stanković
14 K. Asllani

Coach: S. Inzaghi

Milan

4-2-3-1
16 M. Maignan G
2 D. Calabria D
28 M. Thiaw D
23 F. Tomori D
19 T. Hernández D
33 R. Krunić M
8 S. Tonali M
30 Junior Messias M
10 Brahim Díaz M
17 Rafael Leão M
9 O. Giroud F
Bench (12)
20 P. Kalulu
56 A. Saelemaekers
27 D. Origi
5 F. Ballo
24 S. Kjær
46 M. Gabbia
83 A. Mirante
12 A. Rebić
90 C. De Ketelaere
92 L. Nava
32 T. Pobega
25 A. Florenzi

Coach: S. Pioli

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

C Turpin · 184 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.