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Serie A

Referee: A Rapuano

Milan

U U S U U

2–0

Full-time

Lazio

S S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Lazio

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

1,8

2,5

Scored

1,2

1,7

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 53%

48%

58%

Points per game

1,8

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

55%

42%

Both score Ø 49%

64%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,6

Conceded

1,2

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

0,85 xG 1,23

52% Possession 48%

10 Shots 8

3 Shots on target 0

3 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 1

6 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 6. · Lazio 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	33	25	5	3	+46	+10.6	80
2	Lazio	33	19	7	7	+28	+1.7	64
3	Juventus	33	19	6	8	+22	+6.9	63
4	Inter	33	19	3	11	+25	+19.1	60
5	Atalanta	33	17	7	9	+17	+3.0	58
6	Milan	33	16	10	7	+14	+3.7	58
7	Roma	33	17	7	9	+14	+6.6	58
8	Fiorentina	33	12	10	11	+6	+6.3	46
9	Bologna	33	12	9	12	-1	-2.0	45
10	Monza	33	12	9	12	-3	-3.1	45
11	Torino	33	12	9	12	-3	+2.8	45
12	Udinese	33	10	13	10	+2	-2.9	43
13	Sassuolo	33	12	7	14	-9	+3.2	43
14	Salernitana	33	7	14	12	-13	-10.7	35
15	Empoli	33	8	11	14	-14	-9.2	35
16	Lecce	33	7	10	16	-12	+0.7	31
17	Verona	32	6	8	18	-24	-6.1	26
18	Spezia	32	5	11	16	-26	-7.2	26
19	Cremonese	33	3	12	18	-30	-9.7	21
20	Sampdoria	33	3	8	22	-39	-13.5	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	17	12	3	2	+22	+4.4	39
2	Napoli	16	11	3	2	+20	+4.0	36
3	Inter	17	12	0	5	+20	+9.5	36
4	Milan	16	10	4	2	+13	+4.9	34
5	Lazio	17	10	3	4	+13	+1.3	33
6	Roma	16	10	2	4	+14	+1.8	32
7	Bologna	17	7	7	3	+10	-0.5	28
8	Atalanta	16	8	3	5	+9	+5.1	27
9	Fiorentina	17	7	6	4	+5	+7.2	27
10	Sassuolo	16	8	3	5	+4	+1.7	27
11	Udinese	16	5	9	2	+10	+3.7	24
12	Monza	17	6	5	6	+2	+1.0	23
13	Empoli	16	6	4	6	-3	-2.5	22
14	Salernitana	17	5	6	6	+2	-5.5	21
15	Torino	16	5	5	6	-3	+2.1	20
16	Verona	17	6	2	9	-11	-3.9	20
17	Lecce	16	3	7	6	-4	+2.7	16
18	Spezia	16	3	7	6	-10	-5.7	16
19	Cremonese	16	2	4	10	-16	-4.2	10
20	Sampdoria	17	1	5	11	-16	-2.3	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	17	14	2	1	+26	+6.6	44
2	Lazio	16	9	4	3	+15	+0.5	31
3	Atalanta	17	9	4	4	+8	-2.1	31
4	Roma	17	7	5	5	+0	+4.8	26
5	Torino	17	7	4	6	+0	+0.7	25
6	Inter	16	7	3	6	+5	+9.5	24
7	Milan	17	6	6	5	+1	-1.2	24
8	Juventus	16	7	3	6	+0	+2.5	24
9	Monza	16	6	4	6	-5	-4.1	22
10	Fiorentina	16	5	4	7	+1	-0.9	19
11	Udinese	17	5	4	8	-8	-6.6	19
12	Bologna	16	5	2	9	-11	-1.5	17
13	Sassuolo	17	4	4	9	-13	+1.5	16
14	Lecce	17	4	3	10	-8	-2.0	15
15	Salernitana	16	2	8	6	-15	-5.2	14
16	Empoli	17	2	7	8	-11	-6.7	13
17	Cremonese	17	1	8	8	-14	-5.5	11
18	Spezia	16	2	4	10	-16	-1.5	10
19	Sampdoria	16	2	3	11	-23	-11.2	9
20	Verona	15	0	6	9	-13	-2.2	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.