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Premier League

Referee: J Brooks

Liverpool

S S S S S

1–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

U S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

100%

50%

Points per game

3,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,3

1,8

Scored

2,3

1,2

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 50%

53%

47%

Points per game

1,8

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

61%

47%

Both score Ø 49%

50%

47%

Average goals

3,1

2,6

Scored

1,9

1,3

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,75 xG 1,35

66% Possession 34%

10 Shots 6

5 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 4

4 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 5. · Aston Villa 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	35	27	4	4	+61	+24.4	85
2	Arsenal	36	25	6	5	+41	+10.4	81
3	Newcastle	36	19	12	5	+35	+17.1	69
4	Man United	35	20	6	9	+10	+5.2	66
5	Liverpool	36	19	8	9	+28	+13.9	65
6	Brighton	35	17	7	11	+18	+17.7	58
7	Tottenham	37	17	6	14	+4	+0.1	57
8	Aston Villa	36	17	6	13	+4	-1.5	57
9	Brentford	37	14	14	9	+11	+5.0	56
10	Fulham	36	15	6	15	+3	-9.5	51
11	Chelsea	35	11	10	14	-5	+2.3	43
12	Crystal Palace	36	11	10	15	-9	-2.7	43
13	Wolves	36	11	7	18	-22	-12.6	40
14	Bournemouth	36	11	6	19	-32	-7.1	39
15	West Ham	36	10	7	19	-14	-7.3	37
16	Nott'm Forest	36	8	10	18	-31	-16.2	34
17	Everton	36	7	11	18	-24	-10.4	32
18	Leeds	36	7	10	19	-25	-12.2	31
19	Leicester	36	8	6	22	-18	-3.3	30
20	Southampton	36	6	6	24	-35	-13.5	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	18	16	1	1	+42	+16.1	49
2	Liverpool	18	13	4	1	+29	+13.1	43
3	Arsenal	18	13	3	2	+23	+9.9	42
4	Man United	17	13	3	1	+22	+11.2	42
5	Newcastle	18	11	5	2	+22	+13.6	38
6	Tottenham	19	12	1	6	+12	+3.9	37
7	Aston Villa	18	11	2	5	+11	+2.9	35
8	Brentford	18	9	7	2	+16	+7.9	34
9	Brighton	17	9	3	5	+14	+13.3	30
10	Wolves	18	9	2	7	-1	-0.4	29
11	Fulham	18	8	4	6	+2	-4.0	28
12	Nott'm Forest	18	7	6	5	+2	-8.2	27
13	Crystal Palace	18	7	6	5	-2	-2.2	27
14	West Ham	18	7	4	7	+0	+1.5	25
15	Chelsea	18	6	6	6	+1	+3.9	24
16	Bournemouth	18	6	4	8	-7	-2.2	22
17	Leeds	18	5	7	6	-8	-2.3	22
18	Everton	18	5	3	10	-12	-1.1	18
19	Leicester	18	4	4	10	-5	-2.4	16
20	Southampton	18	2	4	12	-18	-6.2	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	18	12	3	3	+18	+0.5	39
2	Man City	17	11	3	3	+19	+8.3	36
3	Newcastle	18	8	7	3	+13	+3.5	31
4	Brighton	18	8	4	6	+4	+4.4	28
5	Man United	18	7	3	8	-12	-5.9	24
6	Fulham	18	7	2	9	+1	-5.5	23
7	Liverpool	18	6	4	8	-1	+0.8	22
8	Brentford	19	5	7	7	-5	-2.9	22
9	Aston Villa	18	6	4	8	-7	-4.4	22
10	Tottenham	18	5	5	8	-8	-3.8	20
11	Chelsea	17	5	4	8	-6	-1.6	19
12	Bournemouth	18	5	2	11	-25	-4.9	17
13	Crystal Palace	18	4	4	10	-7	-0.5	16
14	Everton	18	2	8	8	-12	-9.3	14
15	Leicester	18	4	2	12	-13	-0.9	14
16	Southampton	18	4	2	12	-17	-7.3	14
17	West Ham	18	3	3	12	-14	-8.7	12
18	Wolves	18	2	5	11	-21	-12.2	11
19	Leeds	18	2	3	13	-17	-9.9	9
20	Nott'm Forest	18	1	4	13	-33	-8.0	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.