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Serie A

Referee: L Pairetto

Milan

T S S T S

4–0

Full-time

Crotone

T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Crotone

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,7

4,3

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,2

2,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,3

This season — Serie A · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 43%

70%

15%

Points per game

2,3

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

70%

Both score Ø 63%

60%

65%

Average goals

3,2

3,4

Scored

2,1

1,1

Conceded

1,2

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,9

-1,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

49% Possession 51%

21 Shots 9

12 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

8 Corners 6

5 Offside 0

17 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 2. · Crotone 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	21	14	5	2	+28	47
2	Milan	20	14	4	2	+18	46
3	Juventus	20	12	6	2	+23	42
4	Roma	21	12	4	5	+9	40
5	Napoli	20	12	1	7	+23	37
6	Atalanta	21	10	7	4	+19	37
7	Lazio	20	11	4	5	+8	37
8	Sassuolo	21	8	7	6	+2	31
9	Verona	20	8	6	6	+5	30
10	Sampdoria	21	8	3	10	-1	27
11	Genoa	21	6	6	9	-7	24
12	Benevento	21	6	5	10	-17	23
13	Fiorentina	21	5	7	9	-12	22
14	Udinese	20	5	6	9	-7	21
15	Spezia	21	5	6	10	-10	21
16	Bologna	20	5	5	10	-10	20
17	Torino	21	2	10	9	-9	16
18	Cagliari	20	3	6	11	-14	15
19	Parma	20	2	7	11	-24	13
20	Crotone	20	3	3	14	-24	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Roma	11	8	3	0	+15	27
2	Inter	10	8	1	1	+16	25
3	Juventus	10	7	2	1	+12	23
4	Napoli	10	6	1	3	+17	19
5	Atalanta	11	5	3	3	+10	18
6	Milan	10	5	3	2	+5	18
7	Verona	10	5	2	3	+5	17
8	Lazio	10	5	2	3	+2	17
9	Fiorentina	11	4	4	3	+0	16
10	Bologna	10	4	2	4	-1	14
11	Genoa	11	4	2	5	-1	14
12	Sampdoria	10	4	1	5	+1	13
13	Sassuolo	10	3	4	3	+0	13
14	Crotone	10	3	1	6	-7	10
15	Benevento	11	2	4	5	-9	10
16	Udinese	10	2	3	5	-5	9
17	Cagliari	10	2	3	5	-6	9
18	Parma	10	1	4	5	-12	7
19	Torino	10	0	6	4	-5	6
20	Spezia	10	1	3	6	-9	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	10	9	1	0	+13	28
2	Inter	11	6	4	1	+12	22
3	Lazio	10	6	2	2	+6	20
4	Juventus	10	5	4	1	+11	19
5	Atalanta	10	5	4	1	+9	19
6	Napoli	10	6	0	4	+6	18
7	Sassuolo	11	5	3	3	+2	18
8	Spezia	11	4	3	4	-1	15
9	Sampdoria	11	4	2	5	-2	14
10	Verona	10	3	4	3	+0	13
11	Roma	10	4	1	5	-6	13
12	Benevento	10	4	1	5	-8	13
13	Udinese	10	3	3	4	-2	12
14	Torino	11	2	4	5	-4	10
15	Genoa	10	2	4	4	-6	10
16	Cagliari	10	1	3	6	-8	6
17	Bologna	10	1	3	6	-9	6
18	Parma	10	1	3	6	-12	6
19	Fiorentina	10	1	3	6	-12	6
20	Crotone	10	0	2	8	-17	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.