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Serie A

Referee: M Mariani

Atalanta

T S U U T

3–0

Full-time

Fiorentina

T U T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,7

This season — Serie A · 9/10 matches

Win Ø 32%

44%

20%

Points per game

1,6

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

67%

40%

Both score Ø 64%

78%

50%

Average goals

3,8

2,7

Scored

2,0

1,1

Conceded

1,8

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

53% Possession 47%

14 Shots 3

10 Shots on target 2

11 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

11 Corners 2

3 Offside 0

17 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Atalanta 9. · Fiorentina 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	10	8	2	0	+14	26
2	Inter	11	7	3	1	+14	24
3	Sassuolo	11	6	4	1	+9	22
4	Napoli	9	7	0	2	+17	21
5	Verona	11	5	4	2	+6	19
6	Roma	10	5	3	2	+4	18
7	Juventus	9	4	5	0	+9	17
8	Lazio	11	5	2	4	-2	17
9	Atalanta	9	4	2	3	+2	14
10	Udinese	10	4	1	5	-1	13
11	Bologna	10	4	0	6	-2	12
12	Cagliari	11	3	3	5	-5	12
13	Sampdoria	10	3	2	5	-2	11
14	Benevento	11	3	2	6	-10	11
15	Parma	10	2	4	4	-7	10
16	Spezia	11	2	4	5	-8	10
17	Fiorentina	10	2	3	5	-5	9
18	Torino	11	1	3	7	-8	6
19	Genoa	10	1	3	6	-10	6
20	Crotone	11	1	2	8	-15	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Roma	5	3	2	0	+8	11
2	Milan	5	3	2	0	+7	11
3	Verona	6	3	2	1	+4	11
4	Juventus	4	3	1	0	+6	10
5	Inter	5	3	1	1	+4	10
6	Napoli	5	3	0	2	+9	9
7	Bologna	5	3	0	2	+3	9
8	Sassuolo	6	2	3	1	+1	9
9	Cagliari	5	2	1	2	+0	7
10	Fiorentina	5	2	1	2	+0	7
11	Parma	5	1	3	1	-1	6
12	Udinese	5	2	0	3	-2	6
13	Lazio	6	1	2	3	-5	5
14	Sampdoria	5	1	1	3	+0	4
15	Atalanta	4	1	1	2	-1	4
16	Crotone	6	1	1	4	-6	4
17	Benevento	5	1	1	3	-6	4
18	Genoa	5	1	0	4	-3	3
19	Torino	6	0	2	4	-5	2
20	Spezia	5	0	2	3	-7	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	5	5	0	0	+7	15
2	Inter	6	4	2	0	+10	14
3	Sassuolo	5	4	1	0	+8	13
4	Napoli	4	4	0	0	+8	12
5	Lazio	5	4	0	1	+3	12
6	Atalanta	5	3	1	1	+3	10
7	Verona	5	2	2	1	+2	8
8	Spezia	6	2	2	2	-1	8
9	Juventus	5	1	4	0	+3	7
10	Udinese	5	2	1	2	+1	7
11	Sampdoria	5	2	1	2	-2	7
12	Benevento	6	2	1	3	-4	7
13	Roma	5	2	1	2	-4	7
14	Cagliari	6	1	2	3	-5	5
15	Torino	5	1	1	3	-3	4
16	Parma	5	1	1	3	-6	4
17	Bologna	5	1	0	4	-5	3
18	Genoa	5	0	3	2	-7	3
19	Fiorentina	5	0	2	3	-5	2
20	Crotone	5	0	1	4	-9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.