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Bundesliga
Referee: M Petersen
Leverkusen
S S S U S
4–1
Full-time
Hoffenheim
T T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leverkusen Hoffenheim
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
83%
17%
Points per game
2,7
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
83%
67%
Both score Ø 84%
67%
100%
Average goals
3,8
3,5
Scored
2,7
1,7
Conceded
1,2
1,8
Goal diff per game
+1,5
-0,2
This season — Bundesliga · 10/10 matches
Win Ø 45%
60%
30%
Points per game
2,2
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 60%
50%
70%
Both score Ø 75%
60%
90%
Average goals
2,8
3,5
Scored
1,9
1,8
Conceded
0,9
1,7
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

60% Possession 40%
13 Shots 11
8 Shots on target 4
2 Blocked shots 0
3 Goalkeeper saves 4
6 Corners 5
4 Offside 1
12 Free kicks against 13
3 Yellow cards 6
0 Red cards 2
The table before the match Leverkusen 3. · Hoffenheim 11.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 11 7 3 1 +18 24
2 RB Leipzig 11 7 3 1 +14 24
3 Leverkusen 10 6 4 0 +10 22
4 Wolfsburg 11 5 6 0 +7 21
5 Dortmund 11 6 1 4 +8 19
6 Union Berlin 11 4 5 2 +8 17
7 Stuttgart 11 4 5 2 +7 17
8 M'gladbach 11 4 5 2 +3 17
9 Ein Frankfurt 11 2 7 2 -3 13
10 Augsburg 11 3 4 4 -3 13
11 Hoffenheim 10 3 3 4 +1 12
12 Hertha 11 3 3 5 -1 12
13 Werder Bremen 11 2 5 4 -5 11
14 Freiburg 11 2 5 4 -8 11
15 FC Koln 11 2 4 5 -4 10
16 Bielefeld 11 2 1 8 -14 7
17 Mainz 11 1 2 8 -13 5
18 Schalke 04 11 0 4 7 -25 4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Leverkusen Hoffenheim
1–0 L. Bailey
N. Amiri
4′
2–0 L. Bailey
27′
Moussa Diaby 🟨
31′
Daley Sinkgraven 🟨
35′
38′
🟨 Florian Grillitsch
Half-time 2–0
46′
🔁 R. Skov
↦ S. Rudy
50′
C. Baumgartner 2–1
R. Sessegnon
3–1 F. Wirtz
P. Schick
55′
58′
🟨 Stefan Posch
59′
🔁 I. Belfodil
↦ I. Bebou
64′
🟨 Florian Grillitsch
64′
🟥 Florian Grillitsch
Wendell 🔁
↦ D. Sinkgraven
65′
L. Alario 🔁
↦ P. Schick
66′
Nadiem Amiri 🟨
74′
74′
🟨 Kevin Vogt
K. Bellarabi 🔁
↦ L. Bailey
75′
M. Weiser 🔁
↦ L. Bender
75′
76′
🔁 M. Gaćinović
↦ C. Baumgartner
76′
🔁 K. Akpoguma
↦ A. Kramarić
79′
🟨 Stefan Posch
79′
🟥 Stefan Posch
A. Dragović 🔁
↦ J. Baumgartlinger
83′
86′
🔁 M. Bogarde
↦ D. Samassekou
90′
🟨 Håvard Nordtveit
4–1 L. Alario
91′
Full-time 4–1

Line-ups

Leverkusen

4-3-3
1 L. Hrádecký G
8 L. Bender D
4 J. Tah D
22 D. Sinkgraven D
12 E. Tapsoba D
15 J. Baumgartlinger M
11 N. Amiri M
27 F. Wirtz M
14 P. Schick F
9 L. Bailey F
19 M. Diaby F
Bench (9)
18 Wendell
13 L. Alario
38 K. Bellarabi
23 M. Weiser
6 A. Dragović
36 N. Lomb
39 C. Türkmen
16 T. Jedvaj
37 E. Gedikli

Coach: P. Bosz

Hoffenheim

4-1-3-2
1 O. Baumann G
6 H. Nordtveit D
22 K. Vogt D
38 S. Posch D
16 S. Rudy M
11 F. Grillitsch F
18 D. Samassekou M
14 C. Baumgartner M
17 R. Sessegnon D
27 A. Kramarić F
9 I. Bebou M
Bench (9)
29 R. Skov
19 I. Belfodil
20 M. Gaćinović
25 K. Akpoguma
32 M. Bogarde
15 K. Nuhu
10 M. Dabour
12 P. Pentke
30 M. John

Coach: S. Hoeneb

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,78
U
4,20
B
4,01
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,40
U2,5
2,90
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

M Petersen · 103 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,22 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.