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Serie A

Referee: Fabio Maresca

Atalanta

S T S S U

1–1

Full-time

Fiorentina

U T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Atalanta Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,2

3,0

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

0,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,0

This season — Serie A · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 38%

42%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

50%

58%

Both score Ø 61%

63%

58%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,4

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

57% Possession 43%

7 Shots 17

2 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 5

2 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 18

2 Yellow cards 6

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Atalanta 8. · Fiorentina 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	25	21	3	1	+40	66
2	Juventus	25	21	2	2	+47	65
3	Roma	25	15	5	5	+21	50
4	Inter	25	13	9	3	+19	48
5	Lazio	24	14	4	6	+26	46
6	Sampdoria	24	12	5	7	+12	41
7	Milan	24	11	5	8	+4	38
8	Atalanta	24	10	7	7	+8	37
9	Torino	25	8	12	5	+5	36
10	Udinese	25	10	3	12	+0	33
11	Fiorentina	24	8	7	9	+2	31
12	Genoa	25	8	6	11	-4	30
13	Bologna	25	9	3	13	-7	30
14	Cagliari	25	7	4	14	-13	25
15	Chievo	25	6	7	12	-19	25
16	Sassuolo	25	6	5	14	-28	23
17	Crotone	25	5	6	14	-23	21
18	Spal	25	3	8	14	-24	17
19	Verona	24	4	4	16	-26	16
20	Benevento	25	3	1	21	-40	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	13	10	2	1	+22	32
2	Juventus	12	10	1	1	+26	31
3	Sampdoria	13	9	2	2	+18	29
4	Inter	13	8	4	1	+14	28
5	Roma	13	8	1	4	+9	25
6	Atalanta	12	6	3	3	+8	21
7	Lazio	11	6	2	3	+16	20
8	Torino	13	5	5	3	+8	20
9	Milan	11	6	2	3	+1	20
10	Udinese	13	5	2	6	+2	17
11	Fiorentina	12	4	4	4	+0	16
12	Chievo	13	4	4	5	-4	16
13	Bologna	13	4	3	6	-2	15
14	Cagliari	12	4	1	7	-4	13
15	Crotone	12	3	4	5	-6	13
16	Genoa	12	3	2	7	-5	11
17	Spal	12	2	5	5	-9	11
18	Sassuolo	12	2	4	6	-9	10
19	Benevento	13	3	1	9	-15	10
20	Verona	12	2	1	9	-15	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	13	11	1	1	+21	34
2	Napoli	12	11	1	0	+18	34
3	Lazio	13	8	2	3	+10	26
4	Roma	12	7	4	1	+12	25
5	Inter	12	5	5	2	+5	20
6	Genoa	13	5	4	4	+1	19
7	Milan	13	5	3	5	+3	18
8	Atalanta	12	4	4	4	+0	16
9	Udinese	12	5	1	6	-2	16
10	Torino	12	3	7	2	-3	16
11	Fiorentina	12	4	3	5	+2	15
12	Bologna	12	5	0	7	-5	15
13	Sassuolo	13	4	1	8	-19	13
14	Sampdoria	11	3	3	5	-6	12
15	Cagliari	13	3	3	7	-9	12
16	Verona	12	2	3	7	-11	9
17	Chievo	12	2	3	7	-15	9
18	Crotone	13	2	2	9	-17	8
19	Spal	13	1	3	9	-15	6
20	Benevento	12	0	0	12	-25	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.