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La Liga

Referee: I Diaz

Celta

U S S S S

1–2

Full-time

Real Madrid

S S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Celta Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,2

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,7

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 56%

38%

73%

Points per game

1,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

38%

58%

Both score Ø 56%

62%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,9

Scored

1,4

2,1

Conceded

1,1

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,04 xG 0,86

37% Possession 63%

8 Shots 14

4 Shots on target 3

0 Blocked shots 7

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

1 Corners 6

2 Offside 0

4 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Celta 6. · Real Madrid 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	26	21	1	4	+45	+34.1	64
2	Real Madrid	26	19	3	4	+32	+30.7	60
3	Ath Madrid	26	15	6	5	+20	+11.5	51
4	Villarreal	26	16	3	7	+17	+6.4	51
5	Betis	26	11	10	5	+10	+9.0	43
6	Celta	26	10	10	6	+8	+4.6	40
7	Espanol	26	10	6	10	-6	-1.9	36
8	Sociedad	26	9	8	9	+0	-0.5	35
9	Ath Bilbao	26	10	5	11	-6	+8.9	35
10	Osasuna	26	9	6	11	+0	-5.7	33
11	Getafe	26	9	5	12	-8	-7.7	32
12	Vallecano	26	7	9	10	-6	+2.4	30
13	Sevilla	26	8	6	12	-7	-14.6	30
14	Girona	26	7	9	10	-15	-9.0	30
15	Valencia	26	7	8	11	-12	-0.8	29
16	Alaves	26	7	6	13	-11	-3.2	27
17	Elche	26	5	11	10	-5	-17.1	26
18	Mallorca	26	6	6	14	-13	-16.3	24
19	Levante	26	5	6	15	-16	-11.8	21
20	Oviedo	26	3	8	15	-27	-19.1	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	13	13	0	0	+35	+22.3	39
2	Ath Madrid	13	11	1	1	+20	+15.9	34
3	Real Madrid	13	11	0	2	+20	+19.6	33
4	Villarreal	13	10	1	2	+18	+6.6	31
5	Betis	13	7	3	3	+10	+7.5	24
6	Osasuna	12	7	3	2	+8	+3.2	24
7	Ath Bilbao	13	7	2	4	+2	+10.3	23
8	Elche	14	5	7	2	+7	-2.1	22
9	Sociedad	13	6	3	4	+4	+1.7	21
10	Valencia	13	5	5	3	+3	+9.4	20
11	Espanol	13	6	2	5	-2	-0.0	20
12	Vallecano	13	4	7	2	+5	+8.8	19
13	Mallorca	13	5	4	4	+2	-0.2	19
14	Alaves	13	5	4	4	+1	+1.2	19
15	Celta	13	4	5	4	+4	+5.4	17
16	Girona	13	4	4	5	-8	-6.7	16
17	Sevilla	13	4	3	6	-1	-4.1	15
18	Getafe	13	4	3	6	-1	-3.1	15
19	Oviedo	13	2	5	6	-9	-9.2	11
20	Levante	13	2	4	7	-10	-5.8	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	13	8	3	2	+12	+11.2	27
2	Barcelona	13	8	1	4	+10	+11.9	25
3	Celta	13	6	5	2	+4	-0.7	23
4	Villarreal	13	6	2	5	-1	-0.2	20
5	Betis	13	4	7	2	+0	+1.5	19
6	Ath Madrid	13	4	5	4	+0	-4.4	17
7	Getafe	13	5	2	6	-7	-4.6	17
8	Espanol	13	4	4	5	-4	-1.9	16
9	Sevilla	13	4	3	6	-6	-10.5	15
10	Sociedad	13	3	5	5	-4	-2.1	14
11	Girona	13	3	5	5	-7	-2.3	14
12	Ath Bilbao	13	3	3	7	-8	-1.3	12
13	Levante	13	3	2	8	-6	-6.1	11
14	Vallecano	13	3	2	8	-11	-6.4	11
15	Osasuna	14	2	3	9	-8	-8.8	9
16	Valencia	13	2	3	8	-15	-10.2	9
17	Alaves	13	2	2	9	-12	-4.3	8
18	Oviedo	13	1	3	9	-18	-9.9	6
19	Mallorca	13	1	2	10	-15	-16.1	5
20	Elche	12	0	4	8	-12	-15.0	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.