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La Liga
Referee: A Cordero
Ath Madrid
U S S S T
3–2
Full-time
Sociedad
S T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Sociedad
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,7
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
4,0
3,0
Scored
2,0
1,7
Conceded
2,0
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,0
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — La Liga · 26/26 matches
Win Ø 47%
58%
35%
Points per game
2,0
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
42%
58%
Both score Ø 64%
46%
81%
Average goals
2,5
2,9
Scored
1,7
1,5
Conceded
0,9
1,5
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+0,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

2,31 xG 0,41
52% Possession 48%
24 Shots 7
9 Shots on target 3
3 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 5
8 Corners 1
3 Offside 1
6 Free kicks against 10
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Ath Madrid 3. · Sociedad 8.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Barcelona 26 21 1 4 +45 +34.1 64
2 Real Madrid 27 20 3 4 +33 +30.5 63
3 Ath Madrid 26 15 6 5 +20 +11.5 51
4 Villarreal 26 16 3 7 +17 +6.4 51
5 Betis 26 11 10 5 +10 +9.0 43
6 Celta 27 10 10 7 +7 +4.8 40
7 Espanol 26 10 6 10 -6 -1.9 36
8 Sociedad 26 9 8 9 +0 -0.5 35
9 Ath Bilbao 26 10 5 11 -6 +8.9 35
10 Osasuna 27 9 7 11 +0 -4.2 34
11 Getafe 26 9 5 12 -8 -7.7 32
12 Girona 27 7 10 10 -15 -7.8 31
13 Vallecano 26 7 9 10 -6 +2.4 30
14 Sevilla 26 8 6 12 -7 -14.6 30
15 Valencia 26 7 8 11 -12 -0.8 29
16 Alaves 26 7 6 13 -11 -3.2 27
17 Elche 26 5 11 10 -5 -17.1 26
18 Mallorca 27 6 7 14 -13 -17.8 25
19 Levante 27 5 7 15 -16 -13.0 22
20 Oviedo 26 3 8 15 -27 -19.1 17

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,60
U
3,98
B
5,32
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,75
U2,5
2,00
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

A Cordero · 12 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
22,4 / match
Average

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.