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La Liga

Referee: J Alberola

Valencia

S S S T T

0–2

Full-time

Real Madrid

S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Valencia Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,7

4,2

Scored

1,5

2,7

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 50%

23%

77%

Points per game

1,0

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

45%

59%

Both score Ø 55%

59%

50%

Average goals

2,6

3,0

Scored

1,0

2,1

Conceded

1,6

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,44 xG 0,96

40% Possession 60%

7 Shots 11

0 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 0

5 Corners 8

1 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Valencia 17. · Real Madrid 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	23	19	1	3	+40	+30.0	58
2	Real Madrid	22	17	3	2	+29	+28.0	54
3	Ath Madrid	23	13	6	4	+20	+10.5	45
4	Villarreal	21	13	3	5	+16	+6.9	42
5	Betis	23	10	8	5	+9	+6.3	38
6	Espanol	22	10	4	8	-1	+3.2	34
7	Celta	23	8	9	6	+5	+1.3	33
8	Sociedad	23	8	7	8	+2	+0.8	31
9	Osasuna	23	8	5	10	+0	-4.1	29
10	Ath Bilbao	23	8	4	11	-8	+6.7	28
11	Getafe	23	7	5	11	-9	-7.2	26
12	Girona	23	6	8	9	-15	-10.3	26
13	Sevilla	23	7	4	12	-8	-13.1	25
14	Alaves	23	7	4	12	-9	-2.5	25
15	Elche	23	5	9	9	-4	-17.0	24
16	Mallorca	23	6	6	11	-9	-13.0	24
17	Valencia	22	5	8	9	-12	-1.1	23
18	Vallecano	22	5	7	10	-12	+0.0	22
19	Levante	22	4	6	12	-12	-9.1	18
20	Oviedo	22	3	7	12	-22	-16.4	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	11	11	0	0	+29	+18.0	33
2	Ath Madrid	12	10	1	1	+18	+13.8	31
3	Real Madrid	11	10	0	1	+18	+16.8	30
4	Villarreal	11	8	1	2	+14	+5.8	25
5	Betis	11	7	1	3	+10	+5.9	22
6	Osasuna	11	6	3	2	+7	+2.6	21
7	Elche	12	5	5	2	+7	-4.2	20
8	Sociedad	12	6	2	4	+4	+1.4	20
9	Ath Bilbao	12	6	2	4	+1	+8.1	20
10	Mallorca	11	5	4	2	+4	+0.7	19
11	Espanol	12	6	1	5	-2	+1.6	19
12	Alaves	12	5	3	4	+1	+1.5	18
13	Valencia	11	4	5	2	+4	+8.7	17
14	Celta	12	3	5	4	+2	+2.9	14
15	Sevilla	12	4	2	6	-1	-3.3	14
16	Girona	11	3	4	4	-8	-7.7	13
17	Getafe	11	3	3	5	-1	-4.0	12
18	Vallecano	10	2	6	2	-1	+5.4	12
19	Oviedo	11	2	5	4	-7	-8.4	11
20	Levante	10	1	4	5	-9	-5.4	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	12	8	1	3	+11	+12.0	25
2	Real Madrid	11	7	3	1	+11	+11.2	24
3	Celta	11	5	4	2	+3	-1.6	19
4	Villarreal	10	5	2	3	+2	+1.1	17
5	Betis	12	3	7	2	-1	+0.4	16
6	Espanol	10	4	3	3	+1	+1.7	15
7	Ath Madrid	11	3	5	3	+2	-3.4	14
8	Getafe	12	4	2	6	-8	-3.1	14
9	Girona	12	3	4	5	-7	-2.6	13
10	Sociedad	11	2	5	4	-2	-0.5	11
11	Levante	12	3	2	7	-3	-3.7	11
12	Sevilla	11	3	2	6	-7	-9.9	11
13	Vallecano	12	3	1	8	-11	-5.4	10
14	Osasuna	12	2	2	8	-7	-6.6	8
15	Ath Bilbao	11	2	2	7	-9	-1.4	8
16	Alaves	11	2	1	8	-10	-4.0	7
17	Valencia	11	1	3	7	-16	-9.7	6
18	Mallorca	12	1	2	9	-13	-13.7	5
19	Oviedo	11	1	2	8	-15	-8.0	5
20	Elche	11	0	4	7	-11	-12.8	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.