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La Liga

Referee: Mario Melero

Barcelona

S U S S S

1–0

Full-time

Vallecano

T U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Vallecano

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,7

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

5,3

2,3

Scored

4,0

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+2,7

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 52%

65%

39%

Points per game

2,1

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

78%

43%

Both score Ø 68%

70%

65%

Average goals

3,9

2,2

Scored

2,8

1,2

Conceded

1,1

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,53 xG 0,99

60% Possession 40%

14 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 0

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

4 Corners 5

2 Offside 5

11 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Barcelona 3. · Vallecano 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	24	15	6	3	+29	+23.7	51
2	Ath Madrid	24	14	8	2	+23	+18.4	50
3	Barcelona	23	15	3	5	+39	+27.7	48
4	Ath Bilbao	24	12	9	3	+16	+14.5	45
5	Villarreal	24	11	8	5	+12	+15.7	41
6	Vallecano	23	9	8	6	+3	+2.0	35
7	Mallorca	24	10	4	10	-7	-1.3	34
8	Betis	24	8	8	8	-1	+4.3	32
9	Osasuna	24	7	11	6	-4	-6.7	32
10	Girona	24	9	4	11	-3	-0.2	31
11	Sociedad	24	9	4	11	-3	+1.8	31
12	Sevilla	24	8	7	9	-5	-3.9	31
13	Getafe	24	7	9	8	+2	-4.9	30
14	Celta	24	8	5	11	-3	+6.5	29
15	Espanol	24	6	6	12	-13	-18.6	24
16	Leganes	24	5	9	10	-13	-22.1	24
17	Las Palmas	24	6	5	13	-12	-22.1	23
18	Valencia	24	5	8	11	-13	-9.0	23
19	Alaves	24	5	7	12	-10	-3.0	22
20	Valladolid	24	4	3	17	-37	-22.6	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	13	9	4	0	+16	+17.1	31
2	Real Madrid	11	9	1	1	+18	+17.2	28
3	Ath Bilbao	12	7	4	1	+12	+9.2	25
4	Celta	12	7	2	3	+8	+5.3	23
5	Osasuna	13	6	5	2	+5	+2.0	23
6	Espanol	13	6	4	3	+3	-4.8	22
7	Barcelona	10	7	0	3	+19	+19.1	21
8	Villarreal	12	5	5	2	+9	+8.3	20
9	Betis	12	5	5	2	+5	+11.7	20
10	Girona	12	6	1	5	+4	+7.2	19
11	Mallorca	13	5	4	4	-1	-2.1	19
12	Valencia	12	5	3	4	+4	+1.8	18
13	Vallecano	11	5	3	3	+2	+6.4	18
14	Sevilla	12	5	3	4	-3	+0.8	18
15	Sociedad	12	5	2	5	-1	+3.6	17
16	Getafe	12	3	7	2	+3	+3.0	16
17	Leganes	12	4	2	6	-7	-7.8	14
18	Las Palmas	12	3	4	5	-2	-5.6	13
19	Alaves	11	3	4	4	-2	+0.2	13
20	Valladolid	12	3	3	6	-12	-8.0	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	13	8	3	2	+20	+8.6	27
2	Real Madrid	13	6	5	2	+11	+6.5	23
3	Villarreal	12	6	3	3	+3	+7.4	21
4	Ath Bilbao	12	5	5	2	+4	+5.3	20
5	Ath Madrid	11	5	4	2	+7	+1.2	19
6	Vallecano	12	4	5	3	+1	-4.4	17
7	Mallorca	11	5	0	6	-6	+0.8	15
8	Getafe	12	4	2	6	-1	-7.9	14
9	Sociedad	12	4	2	6	-2	-1.8	14
10	Sevilla	12	3	4	5	-2	-4.8	13
11	Betis	12	3	3	6	-6	-7.4	12
12	Girona	12	3	3	6	-7	-7.4	12
13	Leganes	12	1	7	4	-6	-14.3	10
14	Las Palmas	12	3	1	8	-10	-16.5	10
15	Alaves	13	2	3	8	-8	-3.2	9
16	Osasuna	11	1	6	4	-9	-8.7	9
17	Celta	12	1	3	8	-11	+1.2	6
18	Valencia	12	0	5	7	-17	-10.8	5
19	Valladolid	12	1	0	11	-25	-14.6	3
20	Espanol	11	0	2	9	-16	-13.8	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.