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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hélder Malheiro

Casa Pia

T S T S T

1–3

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

U U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Casa Pia Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 57%

42%

71%

Points per game

1,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

38%

71%

Both score Ø 52%

54%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,5

Scored

1,3

2,7

Conceded

1,2

0,9

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

0,45 xG 2,32

52% Possession 48%

10 Shots 17

3 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 4

2 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 10

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Casa Pia 6. · Sp Lisbon 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	24	17	5	2	+43	+35.6	56
2	Benfica	24	18	2	4	+38	+33.4	56
3	Porto	25	15	5	5	+29	+23.8	50
4	Sp Braga	25	15	5	5	+19	+14.2	50
5	Santa Clara	25	12	4	9	+1	+7.9	40
6	Casa Pia	24	10	6	8	+1	-5.7	36
7	Guimaraes	24	8	11	5	+6	+9.2	35
8	Estoril	25	9	8	8	-7	-16.1	35
9	Famalicao	24	7	10	7	+1	-5.5	31
10	Rio Ave	24	7	8	9	-12	-14.3	29
11	Moreirense	25	7	7	11	-7	-1.2	28
12	Arouca	25	7	7	11	-14	-7.5	28
13	Nacional	25	7	5	13	-12	-6.8	26
14	Gil Vicente	24	5	8	11	-12	-9.0	23
15	Estrela	25	5	8	12	-15	-12.5	23
16	AVS	25	4	11	10	-15	-12.4	23
17	Farense	25	3	8	14	-19	-17.9	17
18	Boavista	24	3	6	15	-25	-15.1	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	13	12	0	1	+33	+25.0	36
2	Sp Lisbon	12	10	1	1	+20	+16.0	31
3	Porto	12	9	3	0	+23	+22.0	30
4	Sp Braga	13	7	3	3	+10	+13.3	24
5	Guimaraes	12	6	5	1	+7	+7.4	23
6	Santa Clara	13	7	2	4	+1	+10.5	23
7	Casa Pia	12	6	4	2	+6	+2.4	22
8	Estoril	13	6	4	3	+0	-4.7	22
9	Rio Ave	12	5	6	1	+2	+0.4	21
10	Moreirense	12	5	5	2	+2	-1.3	20
11	Nacional	12	6	2	4	-1	-1.3	20
12	Gil Vicente	11	4	4	3	+4	+0.8	16
13	Estrela	13	4	4	5	-3	-5.0	16
14	Famalicao	12	3	6	3	+0	+0.1	15
15	AVS	13	3	5	5	-6	-7.8	14
16	Arouca	12	3	4	5	-6	-5.8	13
17	Farense	12	2	1	9	-12	-4.8	7
18	Boavista	12	1	3	8	-13	-3.8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Braga	12	8	2	2	+9	+0.9	26
2	Sp Lisbon	12	7	4	1	+23	+19.6	25
3	Porto	13	6	2	5	+6	+1.8	20
4	Benfica	11	6	2	3	+5	+8.4	20
5	Santa Clara	12	5	2	5	+0	-2.7	17
6	Famalicao	12	4	4	4	+1	-5.6	16
7	Arouca	13	4	3	6	-8	-1.7	15
8	Casa Pia	12	4	2	6	-5	-8.1	14
9	Estoril	12	3	4	5	-7	-11.4	13
10	Guimaraes	12	2	6	4	-1	+1.8	12
11	Farense	13	1	7	5	-7	-13.2	10
12	AVS	12	1	6	5	-9	-4.6	9
13	Boavista	12	2	3	7	-12	-11.3	9
14	Moreirense	13	2	2	9	-9	+0.1	8
15	Rio Ave	12	2	2	8	-14	-14.6	8
16	Estrela	12	1	4	7	-12	-7.6	7
17	Gil Vicente	13	1	4	8	-16	-9.8	7
18	Nacional	13	1	3	9	-11	-5.6	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.