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La Liga
Referee: Juan Martínez
Vallecano
T U U S S
3–2
Full-time
Real Madrid
S S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vallecano Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,8
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 75%
67%
83%
Average goals
2,7
4,0
Scored
1,7
2,8
Conceded
1,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+1,7
This season — La Liga · 12/12 matches
Win Ø 63%
42%
83%
Points per game
1,5
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 63%
50%
75%
Both score Ø 71%
58%
83%
Average goals
2,6
3,3
Scored
1,4
2,4
Conceded
1,2
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+1,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

45% Possession 55%
15 Shots 16
7 Shots on target 2
3 Blocked shots 4
0 Goalkeeper saves 4
4 Corners 5
2 Offside 0
22 Free kicks against 11
4 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Vallecano 9. · Real Madrid 2.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Barcelona 13 11 1 1 +27 34
2 Real Madrid 12 10 2 0 +19 32
3 Ath Madrid 13 7 3 3 +8 24
4 Betis 13 7 3 3 +8 24
5 Osasuna 13 7 2 4 +3 23
6 Sociedad 13 7 2 4 +1 23
7 Ath Bilbao 13 6 3 4 +7 21
8 Villarreal 13 5 3 5 +4 18
9 Vallecano 12 5 3 4 +3 18
10 Valladolid 13 5 2 6 -5 17
11 Valencia 13 4 4 5 +4 16
12 Mallorca 13 4 4 5 -1 16
13 Getafe 13 3 5 5 -7 14
14 Girona 13 3 4 6 -3 13
15 Almeria 13 4 1 8 -7 13
16 Espanol 13 2 6 5 -5 12
17 Sevilla 13 2 5 6 -8 11
18 Celta 13 3 2 8 -12 11
19 Cadiz 13 2 5 6 -16 11
20 Elche 13 0 4 9 -20 4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Vallecano Real Madrid
Alejandro Catena 🟨
2′
1–0 Santi Comesaña
Fran García
5′
11′
🟨 Vinícius Júnior
35′
ℹ️ Marco Asensio
VAR: Penalty confirmed
37′
L. Modrić 1–1
41′
Éder Militão 1–2
Marco Asensio
2–2 Álvaro García
Isi Palazón
44′
Half-time 2–2
Óscar Trejo 🟨
48′
60′
🟨 Luka Modrić
Álvaro García ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
65′
65′
🟨 Daniel Carvajal
3–2 Ó. Trejo
67′
69′
🔁 E. Camavinga
↦ A. Tchouaméni
70′
🟨 Rodrygo
Unai López 🔁
↦ Ó. Trejo
71′
P. Ciss 🔁
↦ Santi Comesaña
79′
79′
🔁 M. Díaz
↦ L. Modrić
85′
🔁 Lucas Vázquez
↦ Daniel Carvajal
85′
🔁 Nacho
↦ F. Mendy
Ivan Balliu 🟨
87′
Pep Chavarría 🔁
↦ Isi Palazón
88′
Salvi 🔁
↦ Álvaro García
88′
R. Falcao 🔁
↦ Sergio Camello
88′
Josep Chavarría 🟨
91′
99′
🟨 Lucas Vázquez
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Vallecano

4-2-3-1
1 S. Dimitrievski G
20 I. Balliu D
19 F. Lejeune D
5 Catena D
3 Fran García D
6 Santi Comesaña M
23 Óscar Valentín M
7 Isi Palazón M
8 Ó. Trejo M
18 Álvaro García M
34 Sergio Camello F
Bench (12)
17 Unai López
21 P. Ciss
15 Pep Chavarría
14 Salvi
9 R. Falcao
10 Bebé
24 E. Saveljich
2 Mario Hernández
13 Diego López
30 Miguel Ángel Morro
4 Mario Suárez
16 A. Mumin

Coach: Andoni Iraola

Real Madrid

4-3-3
1 T. Courtois G
2 Daniel Carvajal D
3 Éder Militão D
4 D. Alaba D
23 F. Mendy D
15 F. Valverde M
18 A. Tchouaméni M
10 L. Modrić M
11 Marco Asensio F
21 Rodrygo F
20 Vinícius Júnior F
Bench (10)
12 E. Camavinga
24 M. Díaz
17 Lucas Vázquez
6 Nacho
19 Dani Ceballos
7 E. Hazard
13 A. Lunin
5 Vallejo
16 Odriozola
26 Luis López

Coach: C. Ancelotti

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
5,20
U
4,11
B
1,64
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,75
U2,5
2,08
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Juan Martínez · 102 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,2 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
27,0 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.