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La Liga

Referee: Francisco Hernández

Leganes

U S U T T

0–2

Full-time

Ath Bilbao

U T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leganes Ath Bilbao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,7

2,2

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 30%

20%

40%

Points per game

1,0

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 30%

20%

40%

Both score Ø 50%

40%

60%

Average goals

1,6

2,4

Scored

0,6

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,4

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,94 xG 1,32

48% Possession 52%

14 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 7

4 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 11

3 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leganes 15. · Ath Bilbao 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	5	5	0	0	+13	+7.9	15
2	Ath Madrid	5	3	2	0	+7	+7.3	11
3	Real Madrid	5	3	2	0	+7	+6.7	11
4	Villarreal	5	3	2	0	+3	+1.5	11
5	Celta	5	3	0	2	+3	+0.8	9
6	Betis	5	2	2	1	+1	+3.5	8
7	Mallorca	6	2	2	2	+0	+0.4	8
8	Alaves	5	2	1	2	+1	+2.0	7
9	Vallecano	5	2	1	2	+1	-0.2	7
10	Girona	5	2	1	2	+0	+2.4	7
11	Ath Bilbao	5	2	1	2	+0	-0.4	7
12	Espanol	5	2	1	2	+0	-1.6	7
13	Osasuna	5	2	1	2	-4	-3.6	7
14	Sevilla	5	1	2	2	-2	-0.1	5
15	Leganes	5	1	2	2	-2	-3.6	5
16	Sociedad	6	1	1	4	-4	-3.6	4
17	Valladolid	5	1	1	3	-11	-5.5	4
18	Getafe	5	0	3	2	-2	-1.4	3
19	Las Palmas	5	0	2	3	-4	-5.7	2
20	Valencia	5	0	1	4	-7	-6.7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Celta	3	3	0	0	+5	+1.0	9
2	Ath Madrid	3	2	1	0	+6	+5.5	7
3	Betis	3	2	1	0	+3	+4.1	7
4	Osasuna	3	2	1	0	+2	-0.0	7
5	Barcelona	2	2	0	0	+8	+4.2	6
6	Real Madrid	2	2	0	0	+5	+3.7	6
7	Espanol	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.3	6
8	Mallorca	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.2	5
9	Alaves	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.1	4
10	Villarreal	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.6	4
11	Valladolid	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.0	4
12	Ath Bilbao	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.6	4
13	Girona	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.8	3
14	Vallecano	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.4	3
15	Leganes	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.0	3
16	Sevilla	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.4	3
17	Getafe	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.8	2
18	Las Palmas	3	0	2	1	-1	-3.7	2
19	Valencia	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.9	1
20	Sociedad	3	0	0	3	-4	-1.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	3	3	0	0	+5	+3.7	9
2	Villarreal	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.9	7
3	Real Madrid	3	1	2	0	+2	+3.1	5
4	Ath Madrid	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.8	4
5	Vallecano	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.6	4
6	Sociedad	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.8	4
7	Girona	3	1	1	1	-1	+0.6	4
8	Ath Bilbao	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.3	3
9	Mallorca	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.7	3
10	Alaves	3	1	0	2	-1	+1.9	3
11	Sevilla	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.3	2
12	Leganes	3	0	2	1	-2	-3.6	2
13	Espanol	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.0	1
14	Getafe	3	0	1	2	-2	-2.2	1
15	Betis	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.7	1
16	Celta	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.2	0
17	Las Palmas	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.0	0
18	Valencia	3	0	0	3	-6	-4.8	0
19	Osasuna	2	0	0	2	-6	-3.6	0
20	Valladolid	3	0	0	3	-12	-6.5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.