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La Liga
Referee: Juan Luis Pulido Santana
Girona
S S S S S
0–3
Full-time
Real Madrid
S S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Girona Real Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 92%
100%
83%
Points per game
3,0
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
4,0
2,3
Scored
2,8
1,5
Conceded
1,2
0,8
Goal diff per game
+1,7
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — La Liga · 7/7 matches
Win Ø 86%
86%
86%
Points per game
2,7
2,6
Over 2.5 Ø 64%
71%
57%
Both score Ø 64%
71%
57%
Average goals
3,7
2,7
Scored
2,6
1,9
Conceded
1,1
0,9
Goal diff per game
+1,4
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

1,59 xG 2,38
52% Possession 48%
13 Shots 14
3 Shots on target 7
2 Blocked shots 4
4 Goalkeeper saves 3
1 Corners 4
13 Free kicks against 14
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 1
The table before the match Girona 2. · Real Madrid 3.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Barcelona 8 6 2 0 +11 +9.7 20
2 Girona 7 6 1 0 +10 +3.6 19
3 Real Madrid 7 6 0 1 +7 +4.9 18
4 Ath Bilbao 7 4 2 1 +7 +5.0 14
5 Ath Madrid 6 4 1 1 +10 +3.7 13
6 Sociedad 7 3 3 1 +3 +1.0 12
7 Vallecano 8 3 3 2 -2 +1.1 12
8 Valencia 7 3 1 3 +2 +0.7 10
9 Cadiz 7 2 3 2 -2 -2.7 9
10 Getafe 8 2 3 3 -3 -2.3 9
11 Betis 7 2 3 2 -5 -3.1 9
12 Villarreal 8 2 2 4 -3 -2.7 8
13 Sevilla 7 2 1 4 +1 -2.4 7
14 Mallorca 8 1 4 3 -3 -3.9 7
15 Osasuna 7 2 1 4 -3 -1.2 7
16 Alaves 7 2 1 4 -4 -0.6 7
17 Celta 7 1 2 4 -4 -2.8 5
18 Las Palmas 7 1 2 4 -4 -2.9 5
19 Granada 7 1 1 5 -8 -6.0 4
20 Almeria 7 0 2 5 -10 +0.9 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Girona Real Madrid
17′
Joselu 0–1
Jude Bellingham
21′
Aurélien Tchouaméni 0–2
Toni Kroos
Half-time 0–2
Valery Fernández 🔁
↦ Viktor Tsygankov
46′
Portu 🔁
↦ David López
60′
Cristhian Stuani 🔁
↦ Artem Dovbyk
60′
Eric García 🟨
64′
68′
🔁 Rodrygo
↦ Vinícius Júnior
71′
Jude Bellingham 0–3
Joselu
74′
🔁 Dani Ceballos
↦ Jude Bellingham
Pablo Torre 🔁
↦ Sávio
79′
84′
🟨 Kepa Arrizabalaga
Jhon Solís 🔁
↦ Yangel Herrera
87′
87′
🔁 Brahim Díaz
↦ Federico Valverde
87′
🔁 Lucas Vázquez
↦ Joselu
93′
ℹ️ Nacho Fernández
VAR: Card upgrade
94′
🟥 Nacho Fernández
Cristhian Stuani 🟨
95′
95′
🟨 Antonio Rüdiger
Full-time 0–3

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
3,57
U
3,92
B ✓
1,98
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,62
U2,5
2,34
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Juan Luis Pulido Santana · 20 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
28,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.