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Super League

Referee: S Horisberger

Winterthur

S S U S U

2–3

Full-time

Lugano

T T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Winterthur Lugano

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

4,5

2,7

Scored

2,5

0,8

Conceded

2,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Super League · 8/7 matches

Win Ø 48%

38%

57%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 81%

75%

86%

Both score Ø 73%

88%

57%

Average goals

4,3

3,9

Scored

2,1

Conceded

2,1

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,90 xG 1,55

50% Possession 50%

16 Shots 13

6 Shots on target 8

3 Blocked shots 0

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 2

0 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 17

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Winterthur 6. · Lugano 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Zurich	8	4	4	0	+9	-0.3	16
2	Luzern	8	4	3	1	+4	-0.4	15
3	St. Gallen	8	4	3	1	+3	+2.4	15
4	Young Boys	7	4	2	1	+7	+0.7	14
5	Lugano	7	4	0	3	+3	+2.2	12
6	Winterthur	8	3	3	2	+0	-0.4	12
7	Yverdon	8	3	3	2	-2	-3.4	12
8	Servette	8	1	4	3	-4	-0.5	7
9	Basel	7	1	2	4	-2	-0.7	5
10	Grasshoppers	8	1	2	5	-5	-0.3	5
11	Lausanne	8	1	2	5	-6	+0.5	5
12	Lausanne Ouchy	7	1	2	4	-7	+0.2	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	St. Gallen	4	4	0	0	+4	+0.7	12
2	Zurich	4	3	1	0	+6	-1.2	10
3	Luzern	4	3	1	0	+4	-1.0	10
4	Young Boys	3	3	0	0	+7	+1.1	9
5	Lugano	3	3	0	0	+7	+2.4	9
6	Winterthur	4	2	2	0	+3	+1.4	8
7	Yverdon	3	2	1	0	+4	+0.3	7
8	Basel	4	1	2	1	+2	-0.1	5
9	Lausanne Ouchy	5	1	2	2	-5	+0.8	5
10	Grasshoppers	4	1	1	2	-1	-0.9	4
11	Servette	4	0	3	1	-1	-1.6	3
12	Lausanne	4	0	2	2	-4	-0.1	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Zurich	4	1	3	0	+3	+0.9	6
2	Young Boys	4	1	2	1	+0	-0.4	5
3	Luzern	4	1	2	1	+0	+0.6	5
4	Yverdon	5	1	2	2	-6	-3.7	5
5	Winterthur	4	1	1	2	-3	-1.8	4
6	Servette	4	1	1	2	-3	+1.1	4
7	St. Gallen	4	0	3	1	-1	+1.7	3
8	Lausanne	4	1	0	3	-2	+0.6	3
9	Lugano	4	1	0	3	-4	-0.2	3
10	Grasshoppers	4	0	1	3	-4	+0.6	1
11	Lausanne Ouchy	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.6	0
12	Basel	3	0	0	3	-4	-0.5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.