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La Liga

Referee: Alejandro Hernández

Barcelona

S S U S U

2–2

Full-time

Ath Madrid

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Ath Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,7

Scored

1,7

2,0

Conceded

0,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,3

This season — La Liga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 57%

66%

47%

Points per game

2,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

63%

28%

Both score Ø 47%

50%

44%

Average goals

3,3

2,0

Scored

2,3

1,3

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

72% Possession 28%

12 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 1

0 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Barcelona 2. · Ath Madrid 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	32	21	8	3	+39	71
2	Barcelona	32	21	6	5	+39	69
3	Ath Madrid	32	15	13	4	+18	58
4	Sevilla	33	15	12	6	+15	57
5	Getafe	32	14	10	8	+12	52
6	Villarreal	32	15	6	11	+11	51
7	Sociedad	32	14	5	13	+7	47
8	Valencia	32	12	10	10	-5	46
9	Ath Bilbao	32	11	12	9	+8	45
10	Granada	32	12	7	13	+0	43
11	Levante	32	12	5	15	-5	41
12	Osasuna	32	10	11	11	-9	41
13	Betis	32	9	10	13	-9	37
14	Valladolid	32	7	14	11	-10	35
15	Eibar	32	9	8	15	-14	35
16	Alaves	32	9	8	15	-16	35
17	Celta	33	7	13	13	-10	34
18	Mallorca	33	8	5	20	-21	29
19	Leganes	33	5	10	18	-25	25
20	Espanol	32	5	9	18	-25	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	16	15	1	0	+36	46
2	Real Madrid	16	12	4	0	+25	40
3	Ath Madrid	16	10	5	1	+13	35
4	Valencia	16	9	7	0	+13	34
5	Ath Bilbao	16	9	4	3	+11	31
6	Getafe	17	8	6	3	+9	30
7	Villarreal	16	8	5	3	+12	29
8	Granada	16	9	2	5	+7	29
9	Levante	16	8	4	4	+8	28
10	Sevilla	16	7	7	2	+8	28
11	Betis	16	8	4	4	+7	28
12	Sociedad	16	8	3	5	+13	27
13	Alaves	16	7	5	4	+8	26
14	Mallorca	17	7	3	7	+2	24
15	Eibar	16	7	2	7	+0	23
16	Osasuna	16	6	5	5	-4	23
17	Celta	16	5	6	5	+3	21
18	Valladolid	15	3	9	3	+1	18
19	Leganes	17	4	4	9	-10	16
20	Espanol	16	2	5	9	-13	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	16	9	4	3	+14	31
2	Sevilla	17	8	5	4	+7	29
3	Ath Madrid	16	5	8	3	+5	23
4	Barcelona	16	6	5	5	+3	23
5	Getafe	15	6	4	5	+3	22
6	Villarreal	16	7	1	8	-1	22
7	Sociedad	16	6	2	8	-6	20
8	Osasuna	16	4	6	6	-5	18
9	Valladolid	17	4	5	8	-11	17
10	Ath Bilbao	16	2	8	6	-3	14
11	Granada	16	3	5	8	-7	14
12	Espanol	16	3	4	9	-12	13
13	Levante	16	4	1	11	-13	13
14	Celta	17	2	7	8	-13	13
15	Eibar	16	2	6	8	-14	12
16	Valencia	16	3	3	10	-18	12
17	Leganes	16	1	6	9	-15	9
18	Betis	16	1	6	9	-16	9
19	Alaves	16	2	3	11	-24	9
20	Mallorca	16	1	2	13	-23	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.