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Premier League

Referee: J Gillett

Man United

U S T U U

1–0

Full-time

Aston Villa

S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,5

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

1,2

0,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 31/33 matches

Win Ø 53%

58%

48%

Points per game

1,9

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

55%

48%

Both score Ø 47%

45%

48%

Average goals

2,8

2,6

Scored

1,5

1,4

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,25 xG 0,56

57% Possession 43%

14 Shots 7

6 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

1 Corners 4

7 Offside 3

16 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man United 4. · Aston Villa 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	33	23	6	4	+40	+10.2	75
2	Man City	31	23	4	4	+53	+19.0	73
3	Newcastle	32	17	11	4	+32	+10.0	62
4	Man United	31	18	6	7	+9	+2.7	60
5	Tottenham	33	16	6	11	+7	-1.0	54
6	Aston Villa	33	16	6	11	+5	-1.3	54
7	Liverpool	32	15	8	9	+22	+9.0	53
8	Brighton	31	15	7	9	+21	+18.1	52
9	Brentford	34	12	14	8	+8	+4.2	50
10	Fulham	32	13	6	13	+1	-6.0	45
11	Crystal Palace	34	10	10	14	-10	-3.4	40
12	Chelsea	32	10	9	13	-5	+3.3	39
13	Wolves	34	10	7	17	-21	-9.0	37
14	Bournemouth	33	10	6	17	-31	-6.1	36
15	West Ham	33	9	7	17	-10	-2.0	34
16	Leeds	33	7	9	17	-21	-9.2	30
17	Nott'm Forest	34	7	9	18	-32	-14.9	30
18	Leicester	33	8	5	20	-13	-3.1	29
19	Everton	33	6	10	17	-25	-10.1	28
20	Southampton	33	6	6	21	-30	-10.3	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	16	14	1	1	+38	+11.9	43
2	Arsenal	16	12	3	1	+24	+9.7	39
3	Man United	15	11	3	1	+19	+7.6	36
4	Liverpool	15	10	4	1	+26	+9.9	34
5	Tottenham	17	11	1	5	+13	+2.8	34
6	Newcastle	15	9	5	1	+19	+6.9	32
7	Aston Villa	17	10	2	5	+10	+3.1	32
8	Brentford	17	8	7	2	+14	+4.4	31
9	Brighton	15	8	3	4	+17	+11.4	27
10	Wolves	17	8	2	7	-2	+0.4	26
11	Fulham	16	7	4	5	+1	-0.5	25
12	Nott'm Forest	17	6	6	5	+1	-6.8	24
13	Crystal Palace	17	6	6	5	-4	-3.4	24
14	Chelsea	17	6	5	6	+1	+4.0	23
15	West Ham	17	6	4	7	-1	+1.4	22
16	Leeds	17	5	6	6	-8	-1.9	21
17	Bournemouth	16	5	4	7	-8	-2.4	19
18	Everton	17	5	3	9	-9	-2.1	18
19	Leicester	16	4	3	9	-2	-1.0	15
20	Southampton	17	2	4	11	-16	-5.2	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	17	11	3	3	+16	+0.5	36
2	Man City	15	9	3	3	+15	+7.0	30
3	Newcastle	17	8	6	3	+13	+3.1	30
4	Brighton	16	7	4	5	+4	+6.6	25
5	Man United	16	7	3	6	-10	-4.9	24
6	Aston Villa	16	6	4	6	-5	-4.4	22
7	Fulham	16	6	2	8	+0	-5.6	20
8	Tottenham	16	5	5	6	-6	-3.8	20
9	Liverpool	17	5	4	8	-4	-0.9	19
10	Brentford	17	4	7	6	-6	-0.3	19
11	Bournemouth	17	5	2	10	-23	-3.7	17
12	Crystal Palace	17	4	4	9	-6	+0.0	16
13	Chelsea	15	4	4	7	-6	-0.6	16
14	Leicester	17	4	2	11	-11	-2.1	14
15	Southampton	16	4	2	10	-14	-5.1	14
16	West Ham	16	3	3	10	-9	-3.4	12
17	Wolves	17	2	5	10	-19	-9.3	11
18	Everton	16	1	7	8	-16	-8.0	10
19	Leeds	16	2	3	11	-13	-7.3	9
20	Nott'm Forest	17	1	3	13	-33	-8.2	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.