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Serie A

Referee: M Marcenaro

Napoli

S T U U S

1–1

Full-time

Salernitana

U U U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Salernitana

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

1,8

2,5

Scored

0,7

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 52%

81%

23%

Points per game

2,5

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

55%

Both score Ø 47%

39%

55%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

2,2

1,2

Conceded

0,7

1,6

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,4

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,65 xG 0,28

73% Possession 27%

24 Shots 5

8 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 7

10 Corners 0

1 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Napoli 1. · Salernitana 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	31	25	3	3	+46	+9.1	78
2	Lazio	32	18	7	7	+26	+0.7	61
3	Juventus	31	18	5	8	+21	+5.9	59
4	Inter	32	18	3	11	+19	+16.9	57
5	Milan	32	16	9	7	+14	+3.4	57
6	Roma	32	17	6	9	+14	+6.2	57
7	Atalanta	32	16	7	9	+16	+3.1	55
8	Bologna	31	12	8	11	+1	-2.3	44
9	Monza	32	12	8	12	-3	-2.8	44
10	Udinese	32	10	12	10	+2	-2.8	42
11	Fiorentina	31	11	9	11	+1	+4.3	42
12	Torino	32	11	9	12	-5	+1.1	42
13	Sassuolo	31	11	7	13	-8	+2.8	40
14	Salernitana	31	7	12	12	-13	-8.6	33
15	Empoli	31	7	11	13	-15	-6.8	32
16	Lecce	32	7	10	15	-11	+0.8	31
17	Spezia	31	5	11	15	-25	-7.3	26
18	Verona	30	6	7	17	-18	-4.4	25
19	Cremonese	31	3	10	18	-30	-8.9	19
20	Sampdoria	31	3	8	20	-32	-10.5	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	16	11	3	2	+21	+4.3	36
2	Inter	17	12	0	5	+20	+9.5	36
3	Napoli	15	11	2	2	+20	+2.6	35
4	Milan	15	10	3	2	+13	+4.5	33
5	Roma	16	10	2	4	+14	+1.8	32
6	Lazio	16	9	3	4	+11	+0.3	30
7	Bologna	16	7	6	3	+10	+0.2	27
8	Atalanta	15	7	3	5	+8	+5.3	24
9	Sassuolo	15	7	3	5	+3	+0.2	24
10	Fiorentina	16	6	6	4	+0	+5.9	24
11	Udinese	15	5	8	2	+10	+3.8	23
12	Monza	16	6	4	6	+2	+1.3	22
13	Salernitana	16	5	5	6	+2	-4.7	20
14	Torino	16	5	5	6	-3	+2.1	20
15	Verona	16	6	2	8	-5	-1.7	20
16	Empoli	15	5	4	6	-5	-1.4	19
17	Lecce	16	3	7	6	-4	+2.7	16
18	Spezia	16	3	7	6	-10	-5.7	16
19	Cremonese	15	2	3	10	-16	-3.8	9
20	Sampdoria	16	1	5	10	-14	-0.6	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	16	14	1	1	+26	+6.5	43
2	Lazio	16	9	4	3	+15	+0.5	31
3	Atalanta	17	9	4	4	+8	-2.1	31
4	Roma	16	7	4	5	+0	+4.4	25
5	Milan	17	6	6	5	+1	-1.2	24
6	Juventus	15	7	2	6	+0	+1.7	23
7	Torino	16	6	4	6	-2	-1.0	22
8	Monza	16	6	4	6	-5	-4.1	22
9	Inter	15	6	3	6	-1	+7.4	21
10	Udinese	17	5	4	8	-8	-6.6	19
11	Fiorentina	15	5	3	7	+1	-1.6	18
12	Bologna	15	5	2	8	-9	-2.5	17
13	Sassuolo	16	4	4	8	-11	+2.5	16
14	Lecce	16	4	3	9	-7	-1.8	15
15	Empoli	16	2	7	7	-10	-5.3	13
16	Salernitana	15	2	7	6	-15	-3.9	13
17	Cremonese	16	1	7	8	-14	-5.1	10
18	Spezia	15	2	4	9	-15	-1.7	10
19	Sampdoria	15	2	3	10	-18	-9.9	9
20	Verona	14	0	5	9	-13	-2.7	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.