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Bundesliga

Referee: Benjamin Brand

RB Leipzig

S S S S T

2–1

Full-time

St Pauli

U T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig St Pauli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

83%

Points per game

2,5

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,7

2,8

Scored

2,5

0,7

Conceded

1,2

2,2

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 39%

59%

19%

Points per game

1,9

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

69%

53%

Both score Ø 56%

59%

53%

Average goals

3,3

2,6

Scored

2,0

0,8

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,37 xG 0,79

70% Possession 30%

13 Shots 7

5 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 5

2 Offside 0

5 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match RB Leipzig 3. · St Pauli 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	32	26	5	1	+81	+57.9	83
2	Dortmund	33	21	7	5	+34	+21.9	70
3	RB Leipzig	32	19	5	8	+21	+15.7	62
4	Leverkusen	32	17	7	8	+23	+20.6	58
5	Stuttgart	32	17	7	8	+20	+7.8	58
6	Hoffenheim	32	17	7	8	+16	+4.0	58
7	Freiburg	32	12	8	12	-8	+1.4	44
8	Ein Frankfurt	33	11	10	12	-4	-6.2	43
9	Augsburg	32	11	7	14	-14	-15.2	40
10	Mainz	32	9	10	13	-9	-2.3	37
11	M'gladbach	32	8	11	13	-13	-7.9	35
12	Hamburg	32	8	10	14	-15	-19.9	34
13	Union Berlin	32	8	9	15	-20	-10.4	33
14	FC Koln	32	7	11	14	-8	-1.2	32
15	Werder Bremen	32	8	8	16	-20	-10.6	32
16	Wolfsburg	32	6	8	18	-25	-16.9	26
17	St Pauli	32	6	8	18	-28	-23.4	26
18	Heidenheim	32	5	8	19	-31	-15.3	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	13	2	1	+45	+33.5	41
2	Dortmund	17	13	2	2	+24	+21.5	41
3	Stuttgart	16	11	3	2	+12	+10.0	36
4	RB Leipzig	16	11	2	3	+19	+13.9	35
5	Leverkusen	16	9	3	4	+19	+23.1	30
6	Hoffenheim	16	9	2	5	+13	+8.6	29
7	Freiburg	16	8	5	3	+8	+10.6	29
8	Ein Frankfurt	16	7	3	6	+2	+3.1	24
9	Augsburg	16	6	5	5	-5	-6.5	23
10	Hamburg	16	5	6	5	+2	-2.7	21
11	M'gladbach	16	5	6	5	-4	-1.6	21
12	FC Koln	16	5	4	7	+2	+5.0	19
13	Union Berlin	16	4	7	5	-4	+4.4	19
14	Werder Bremen	16	5	4	7	-10	+3.3	19
15	Mainz	16	4	5	7	-2	+5.4	17
16	Heidenheim	16	4	5	7	-12	-7.8	17
17	St Pauli	16	4	5	7	-12	-7.9	17
18	Wolfsburg	16	2	4	10	-10	-0.0	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	13	3	0	+36	+24.4	42
2	Dortmund	16	8	5	3	+10	+0.4	29
3	Hoffenheim	16	8	5	3	+3	-4.6	29
4	Leverkusen	16	8	4	4	+4	-2.6	28
5	RB Leipzig	16	8	3	5	+2	+1.8	27
6	Stuttgart	16	6	4	6	+8	-2.1	22
7	Mainz	16	5	5	6	-7	-7.7	20
8	Ein Frankfurt	17	4	7	6	-6	-9.3	19
9	Augsburg	16	5	2	9	-9	-8.7	17
10	Wolfsburg	16	4	4	8	-15	-16.9	16
11	Freiburg	16	4	3	9	-16	-9.2	15
12	M'gladbach	16	3	5	8	-9	-6.3	14
13	Union Berlin	16	4	2	10	-16	-14.9	14
14	Werder Bremen	16	3	4	9	-10	-13.9	13
15	FC Koln	16	2	7	7	-10	-6.2	13
16	Hamburg	16	3	4	9	-17	-17.1	13
17	St Pauli	16	2	3	11	-16	-15.5	9
18	Heidenheim	16	1	3	12	-19	-7.5	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.